Prior to the wider release of the GSD2020 … here’s a 10-year trend of bidding behaviour
A chart we threw together quickly at Beer O’Clock today (from the imminent release of the GSD2020) was worth sharing more broadly on WattClarity today…
Long-Term Market trends and forecasts
Average spot prices through 2020 down at levels not seen for many years
Several conversations this week prompted me to update the long-term view of how spot prices have trended over time (in particular because average prices in 2020 were quite different than recent years).
What’s up with the fleet of 16 x coal-fired units in NSW?
Following a week where several days saw price volatility in NSW (with this being so extreme that Reserve Trader was triggered on Thursday 17th December) we’ve taken a look at the comparative performance of coal units across the NEM (and particularly in NSW) compared to prior years.
With increasing diversity, the low point of instantaneous aggregate Wind Generation across the NEM is nudging away from 0MW
Patricia Boyce’ challenging question coincided with the low point of cyclic wind output across the NEM this afternoon, and prompted some thinking…
AER releases proposed rule change for Semi-Scheduled generators and dispatch instructions
Following the consultation process conducted by the AER (stemming from their Issues Paper 3 months ago) the AER has today submitted a rule change request to the AEMC relating to Semi-Scheduled generation.
The (slow) decline of coal
Questions from several readers prompted this quick look at the long-term trend of coal generation.
Revenues for Wind Farms (and Solar Farms) in the NEM take a hit
A question over the weekend prompts this article, which follows from discussions to a Vestas-organised audience about revenue patterns and trends for Wind Farms in the NEM.
Extrapolating from the trend of ‘Aggregated Raw Off-Target’ results, to yield some clues to what the future might hold … and one challenge for NEM 2.0
Following on from Friday’s article (which considered the AER Issues Paper) this article delves into more detail of those extremes of ‘Aggregate Raw Off-Target’ across all Semi-Scheduled units that have been recorded over the past 10 years. There’s a clear clustering of cases in 2019 – what does it mean?
Striving to understand the underlying challenges with Semi-Scheduled generators (re AER Issues Paper)
Prompted by the recent AER Issues Paper (submissions on that due today – Friday 24th July) but also aware that I’ve not yet published some broader thoughts in response to the ESB’s requests for input into their Discussion Paper on the Two Sided Market concept, I’ve posted some further thoughts. These have been informed by a longitudinal analysis of Aggregate ‘Raw Off-target’ values across all Semi-Scheduled plant.
It’s good news that time-weighted average prices for Q2 2020 are down on prior years – right?
Spurred by a number of concurrent requests I’ve returned to the pattern of prior analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2016, 2017 and 2018) to look at what’s changed for Q2 2020 that’s just ended. Some stakeholders clearly taken by surprise. Analysis includes the SWIS in Western Australia
Trended daily aggregate wind output since January 2010
Prompted by what I’d seen in the (daily) periodic cycling of aggregate wind production recently, I took more of a look at what’s been apparent over time.
What’s been happening with Bald Hills Wind Farm
A brief look at what’s been happening at Bald Hills Wind Farm – over the 18 months since January 2019, but most particularly in the past couple weeks where output has dropped down near zero.
Balancing Supply and Demand …. in the fast approaching ‘NEM 2.0’ world
Recent invitations (from COAG Energy Council and AEMO) prompt some further analysis of the data set assembled for the GSD2019 in order to understand more about one of the challenges in balancing Supply and Demand in the NEM 2.0 world.
AEMO releases its first* ‘Renewable Integration Study’ on 30th April 2020
An article today providing links to the ‘Renewable Integration Study’ which the AEMO released today, and also to the headline media coverage I have seen on my quick scan this morning.
Two papers released by COAG Energy Council are early stages in fleshing out ‘NEM 2.0’
Some brief initial thoughts, following the release of two discussion papers by the COAG Energy Council – the first on two-sided markets, and the second seeming to cover two different challenges (forward markets, and ‘Keeping the Lights on Services’).
Observing Easter Saturday, a little belatedly
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, invests some time to explore a number of different aspects of Easter Saturday (11th April 2020), each noteworthy in their own right (including low demand, high percentage share renewables, negative prices and dynamic bidding)
ICYMI – COAG EC flags reliability framework changes
Guest author, Allan O’Neil tries to piece together further detail of what is intended with the apparent tightening of the Reliability Standard (which has sat at 0.002% USE for many years).
Review of extremes in ‘Raw Off Target’ performance through 2019, with the Generator Statistical Digest 2019
Using the (hot off the press) Generator Statistical Digest 2019, we take a look across all 304 DUIDs to see how they performed through calendar 2019 in terms of large excesses in ‘Raw Off-Target’ in both directions. These results suggests implications for the future…
About ERM’s two rule change proposals in at the AEMC
Two earlier articles today prompt this follow-on piece, specifically focusing on what’s being requested by ERM Power in two separate rule change requests relating to the MT PASA process.
Some insights about Loy Yang A unit 1 from CAL 2019 (using a draft of the ‘B’ page from the GSD2019)
Another weekend reviewing progress on the Generator Statistical Digest 2019 (nearing completion) and I thought it would be of interest to share some insights about Loy Yang A unit 1 that jump of the sample page provided to us in yesterday’s draft.