Articles by Allan O'Neil

What’s happening around Wagga?

Guest author, Allan O’Neil, takes a detailed look at how VIC1-NSW1 transfer capability has been limited frequently due to constraints related to the 051 line in southern NSW, and what it means in terms of inter-regional settlements residue accumulations, market efficiency overall, and the energy transition.



Stock up on candles?

Last Thursday (31st Aug 2023) the AEMO published the ESOO 2023, including forecasts of some possibility of unserved energy in Victoria and South Australia this coming summer 2023-24 (above the Interim Reliability Measure). Guest author Allan O’Neil takes a look.


Too Early to Say?

Guest author, Allan O’Neil, publishes some analysis for WattClarity on price and generation mix changes apparent in the NEM coincident with (but not wholly caused by) the closure of the last remaining units at Liddell Power Station.


Renewable curtailment – forced and not quite so forced

Inspired by the recent article by Tristan Edis (who referenced the GSD2022 in analysis of curtailment of some wind and solar farms), Allan O’Neil follows on with more analysis of the two main types of curtailment. Allan differentiates these as ‘forced curtailment’ and ‘economic offloading’


Liddell’s ghost stalks the market

During early morning Monday 1st May prices spiked in the NSW quite unexpectedly. Guest author Allan O’Neil takes us into the complexities of the EMMS and NEMDE to help us understand the mechanics of how this happened.


Bye X5, Hi X5

From 16th March 2023 the infamous ‘x5 constraint’ has been split into two. We quickly showed previously that the design of the Left Hand Side (LHS) does not vary. In today’s article, valued guest author Allan O’Neil takes a look at what is different.




Farewell Liddell

Guest author, Allan O’Neil, takes the release of the GSD2022 as an opportunity to take a look at the past 10 years of performance of the four-unit Liddell Power Station (one unit closed in 2022 and three to close soon in 2023), contrasting against two other black coal-fired stations.


FCAS driving the island?

Guest author, Allan O’Neil, contributes his first article with respect to the islanding event in South Australia of November 2022 (in this article taking a look at FCAS market outcomes in South Australia).


Stepping to suspension

With all regions of the NEM having been suspended by AEMO on Wednesday 15th June 2022, guest author Allan O’Neil takes an initial look at what’s visible in terms of operations in the NEM.




A Quick Tour of the 2021 ESOO

Guest author, Allan O’Neil, takes an initial look at some of the highlights included in the AEMO’s Electricity Statement of Opportunities for 2021 (a 10-year forecast for what might unfold in the future of the NEM).


A Second Serving of the Q2 Elephant

For a second portion of Q2 “elephant eating”, I’ll look in some detail at the dynamics of an early instance of spot price volatility in Queensland, because many drivers turn out to be similar across other volatile intervals in the…


Eating the NEM’s Q2 Elephant – An Appetizer

An old adage runs that to eat an elephant, it’s best to proceed in small servings. With a very eventful Q2 in the NEM not yet finished, the number of headline events is already large enough – unexpected price volatility…




Down 55% – but not out

Over 2,000 MW – or around 55% – of South Australia’s firm supply capacity was unavailable last Friday evening (March 12, 2021), along with virtually all of its large-scale renewable supply (a further 1,800 MW or so) but the lights…