A quick look at three price spikes seen late afternoon in QLD on Monday 4th October 2021.
Guest author, Josh Stabler of Energy Edge, provides a look into the ‘contagion of scarcity’ events impacting the market since mid-May 2021.
Carl Daley of EnergyByte, examines recent energy and gas price volatility, leading to the conclusion that the May to July period in QLD and NSW has been the biggest shock to the spot market in history, and the forward price movements are rivalling the record setting year of 2007.
As Q2 2021 unfolded, it seemed that there were many instances where prices spiked during evening demand peaks – and that wind output was low at the time. So I took a closer statistical look…
Prompted by last Friday’s publication of the AER’s ‘Wholesale Markets Quarterly’ for Q2 2021, here’s a tabulated summary of some of the contributing factors of spot price volatility (and hence high average prices) for the quarter – particularly for QLD and NSW.
A snapshot of the start of price volatility in QLD and NSW on Monday 12th July 2021.
A rainy Saturday morning reminds us the price volatility for Q2 in QLD has not totally gone away … with elevated prices for ENERGY and also Contingency FCAS (Raise 6 second and Raise 60 second).
It was volatile this morning well past that’s become ‘normal’ and the volatility has returned (as I expected it would) this evening. Here’s the snapshot of the 17:20 dispatch interval from one of our NEMwatch v10 dashboards: As highlighted: 1) …
Morning spot price volatility in the QLD region persists further into the morning (Tue 15th June) than has become expected.
A short note to recognise the spot price volatility continuing for Monday 14th June 2021.
First price spike at sunset (Friday 11th June 2021) … presumably with a number more bounces to go through the evening.
A short article noting volatility rolls into Thursday evening, 10th June 2021
A short note about the first of the volatility on Wednesday 9th June 2021.
Discussion in a number of different places (including an AFR article today) prompted me to pull some data together of how (spot and futures) prices have trended through 2021, and how they changed with the Callide C4 problems.
Evening spot price volatility has become a regular thing – here’s some of it for Thursday 3rd June 2021
Only two dispatch intervals (thus far?) of extreme pricing tonight for QLD and NSW (Wed 2nd June 2021). Here’s the first one…
A number of things happened late today – with the trip of DDPS1 (only declare credible contingency earlier in the day) giving more impetus to spot price volatility in the QLD and NSW regions already facing tight supply/demand following the Callide catastrophe and LOR1 in NSW.
Was speaking with someone this morning about the expectation that there would be price volatility this evening, and the market obliged. It’s only just started, but here’s the second spike (at 17:40) captured in a snapshot from NEMwatch v10: Here’s…
Spot prices spiked across mainland regions this evening – firstly at 17:55 (above $1,000/MWh). and then at 18:00 (up towards $15,000/MWh). Here’s a first look.
An unfortunately timed significant slump in output across all Wind and Large Solar plant in NSW was another of the factors contributing to the price volatility seen in NSW last week.