We noted a ~500MW jump in 'Market Demand' in Victoria just after 11:00 on Friday 28th August 2026 that was not forecast in advance. We wonder about 'three hours free' effects...
In anticipation of this month's release of the 2026 ESOO, a short article noting the forecast shortfalls flagged in this Tuesday's updated MT PASA modelling via MN144738 published at 14:52 (NEM time) on Tue 4th August 2026.
This is the 2026 edition of our annual review into Q2 spot prices, where we find that average prices fell sharply in all NEM regions compared to Q2 2025, but more importantly, duration curves are changing shape.
I was away during the hot weather of days like Tuesday 27th January 2026, but we're progressively exploring a few things (like this cool change).
Two hours ago, we shared a snapshot from ez2view focused on the 12:30 dispatch interval NEM time on Friday 9th January 2026. This update comes two hours later.
It was a little over 38 hours ago that that we published ‘Forecast for coincident MSL2 on Thursday 1st January 2026 (in Victoria and South Australia)’. So we take an updated look at forecast for 'Market Demand' on Thursday 1st Jan 2026.
Cool and clear conditions in the south of the NEM sees new 'lowest ever' points for Market Demand established in both VIC and SA on Thursday 25th December 2025.
Following media reporting from Monday about 'blackouts' and 'Eraring closure', today (Wednesday 3rd December) there's a media report about 'blackouts' and 'Yallourn closure'
This afternoon we saw mainland frequency briefly step above its normal operating band for approximately 20 minutes — potentially the result of a data glitch. In this quick piece, we unpack some market dynamics while it unfolded.
A short note to flag MN129813 looking forward to next Saturday 25th October 2025, flagging possible MSL1 in Victoria.
I thought it would be worth adding a couple snapshots from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view looking at ‘Market Demand’ as at various dispatch intervals on Thursday 26th June 2025 looking backwards ~7 days and forwards ~7 days
Over the past week (and particularly Wednesday 11th June 2025 and Thursday 12th June 2025) gas-power generation ran strongly in Victoria. So we take a quick look at the historical context.
Another short article to record this 404MW jump in ‘Market Demand’ in the Victorian region from the 07:50 to 07:55 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Wednesday 7th May 2025.
High speed frequency measurements provide a deeper understanding of how the system responded to the unplanned 500kV line outage.
Second article about the large drop in demand in Victoria observed on Thursday morning 10th April 2025.
Noting a large 582MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in Victoria this morning (Thu 10th April 2025) – as captured in this ‘Notification’ alert in ez2view at 08:31 (NEM time).
Worth a short note with this NEMwatch snapshot highlighting that the Victorian ‘Market Demand’ has reached 9,433MW this afternoon at the 17:35 dispatch interval already on Sunday 2nd February 2025
Here's an updated view of AEMO's forecasts for 'Market Demand' across the NEM (and Victoria) for Mon 3rd Feb and Tue 4th Feb 2025 - from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view at the 12:55 dispatch (NEM time) on Sun 2nd Feb 2025.
With respect to forecasts for peak Victorian ‘Market Demand’ in summer 2024-25 (and particularly with expectations of Monday 3rd and Tuesday 4th February) we fielded a few questions about how extreme that might be. So we thought we’d provide this article as some context.
On Wednesday 1st January 2025 (New Year's Day), Victoria saw both a new 'lowest ever*' point for 'Market Demand' and Actual MSL1.