Whether the weather is windy … but wind farms not as well-yielding as I might have thought?!
Something I'm currently puzzled about, with respect to the trend of peak aggregate production across Wind Farms.
Long-term market trends and forecasts
How bidding at Semi-Scheduled units has adjusted for the moving target of ‘negative LGC’
Following a couple articles about the downwards trend of spot LGC price, we look at how that's fed into 'negative LGC' bid prices for VRE.
A two-year trend of (NEM-wide aggregate) daily minimum and maximum state of charge, across all Large BESS
A couple comments/conversations at today's Endgame seminar in Brisbane prompts me to publish this long-term review of aggregate battery operations across the NEM.
Spot LGC prices down the gurgler…
At the end of 2025, we’d highlighted ‘Sixteen years of spot price for LGC, at the end of 2025’. Here's an update.
Basslink on track to operate as regulated interconnector from 1 July 2026
The greatest difference, pre and post July 2025, is in the flows from Victoria to Tasmania.
A ~24 year trend of Regulation FCAS services, in two charts
A couple recent reasons prompt this long-range trend of Regulation FCAS services.
Daily count of MII market notices confirms sudden increase
A number of readers have asked about the recent increase in market notices for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs (MII).
What impact might Fuel Rationing have on the National Electricity Market?
With (bottom-up driven) Fuel Rationing underway, and speculation about possible top-down mandates as soon as tomorrow's National Cabinet meeting, we outline some ways that liquid fuels help to support the National Electricity Market.
Delving deeper into coal unit (re) starts over >17 years … January 2010 to March 2026
For several reasons (including thoughts on Energy Security with the War in the Middle East) we take an updated and deeper trended look at coal unit starts.
AEMO Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO): Decreases in forecast gas shortfalls
An initial overview of the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) 2026 that has been released today.
The state-of-charge for 2025: The NEM’s battery fleet crosses the chasm
In this instalment of our annual review of the NEM’s expanding battery fleet, we draw on the GSD2025 to look at long-term trends in market revenue, high-price capture, the early returns of FPP, and network curtailment.
New FCAS resources dominate enabled levels in 2025
We find the trend for increasing enablement of the 'new' resources has only continued, that the new FCAS resources are the dominant providers of all FCAS services nowadays.
Who killed FCAS?
Alex Leemon looks at how FCAS bidding and enablement volumes have shifted over the past decade — drawing on New South Wales data — to unpack what’s been driving the post-2023 collapse in FCAS prices.
Coal is adjusting but the market isn’t waiting
David Leitch reflects on how coal generators have adapted to a changing NEM, drawing on time-of-day profiles, and data from our GSD, and explains why — despite that flexibility — the underlying economics are becoming increasingly fragile as batteries reshape the evening peak.
Semi-dispatch caps are loading the deviation dice
Following a growing number of articles on WattClarity about “VRE under-performance dragging frequency down”, guest author Allan O'Neil takes a look at how the one sided nature of the SDC plays a role - and suggests a possible action that would help.
Sixteen years of spot price for LGC, at the end of 2025
As calendar 2025 draws to a close I thought it might also be of interest to trend 16 years of spot LGC price data.
The long-term trend of forecast errors for daily peak demand in QLD over the past seven summers
A look at how AEMO’s short-term forecasts have performed at the daily peak in Queensland over the past seven summers — and how that performance is changing as rooftop PV grows.
Extending the tabulated history of significant (Frequency and/or AggROT) events into 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4
An update of earlier article (from 8th Sept 2025) comparing Frequency Excursions with instances of large AggROT across Semi-Scheduled units - for 2025 Q3 and 2025 Q4 (ytd).
An updated longer term trend (and tabulation) of operations at Waratah BESS
Almost exactly 3 months ago we posted a ~12 month chronological record of the history of Waratah BESS. Due to observations today (and questions and conversations leading from them) it was worthwhile to update this trend.
Comparing AggROT for (44x) Coal Units with AggROT for Semi-Scheduled units through the history of the NEM
On Sunday (following from the discussion at the NEMdev conference in Brisbane a few weeks ago, and leading into this week’s All Energy 2025 in Melbourne) I highlighted these ‘Two *big concerns* that we urge the Nelson Review panel to (re)consider (with respect to Invisible...