‘Summer is coming!’ … Part 1
Over recent weeks we’ve seen a number of warnings about what’s in store for summer 2026-27 in the NEM, so we take a first look.
summer
What the hail is happening with Brisbane’s weather?
Anthony Cornelius from WeatherWatch explains the climate drivers behind Southeast Queensland’s unusually intense 2025 hail season — context that matters for those tracking how extreme weather is evolving and influencing the energy market.
Friday morning forecasts for load shedding (i.e. LOR3) in NSW on Monday 16th and Tuesday 17th December grow more extreme
We'll explore 'what's changed?' more in subsequent articles - but in this article just want to flag the Market Notice updates around 05:00 (NEM time) this morning with forecast load shedding for Monday and Tuesday next week growing more extreme ...
AEMO MT PASA update on 19th November 2024 notes Low Reserve Conditions for NSW and Victoria for summer 2024-25
On Tuesday morning 19th November 2024 the AEMO MN120612 warns of forecast Low Reserve Conditions for summer 2024-25 in both NSW and Victoria.
Summer reflections
Guest author, Carl Daley from EnergyByte, provides this summary of summer 2024 - covering price volatility, consolidation of the twin peaks dynamic, and BESS performance.
NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ reached 32,938MW on Sunday 4th Feb 2024 (updated)
A short article (perhaps with others to follow?) recording a high NEM-wide demand evening on Sunday 4th February 2024.
QLD ‘Market Demand’ reaches 10,210MW on Sat 27th Jan 2024, and looks set to climb further
As Saturday evening (27th Jan 2024), at 17:45 QLD 'Market Demand' reaches 10,210MW ... and volatility starts.
A handy reminder from the BOM about why QLD is feeling so hot – on Saturday 27th January 2024
A timely reminder from the BOM of why 'Apparent Temperature' can be significantly higher than 'Actual Temperature' ... such as across QLD on Saturday 27th Jan 2024 (and also Mon 22nd Jan 2024).
AEMO’s current forecast sees 3.5 hours in QLD with ‘Market Demand’ above 10,000MW on Mon 22nd Jan 2024
The middle of the day Sunday (so ~30 hours before the point of interest) sees an opportunity to take an updated look at how extreme AEMO is forecasting Monday (22nd Jan) evening demand in QLD will be...
Demand (and price) spiking in QLD on Thursday afternoon 18th Jan 2024
A third article (first on the day) looking at tight supply-demand balance in the QLD 'Economic Island' on Thursday 18th January 2024
Forecast temperature rising in Queensland for Thu 18th Jan 2024 (and Fri 19th and Mon 22nd)
A first article about forecast high temperatures (hence high demand, and also potentially LOR levels) for Queensland on Thursday 18th January 2024 ... and also Fri 19th and Mon 22nd.
… but Loy Yang A1 trips on Sunday 14th January 2024
A quick PS to the earlier Sunday article (which looked at LYA4) this time focused on LYA1.
Hiccups over, at Loy Yang A4? (Part 3)
This article (Part 3) follows on from Part 1 and Part 2, which looked at four successive trip/outage at Loy Yang A4 in recent days.
Part 3 … Victorian demand holding up at higher levels than successive AEMO forecasts
Third article today, focusing on an apparent anomaly between AEMO's P30 and P5 predispatch forecasts for Victorian demand today (Sun 31st Dec 2023).
Demand in Victoria drops to a new lowest point on Sunday 31st December 2023, and AEMO flags possible intervention (Part 1?)
First article today, recording a new 'lowest ever' point for demand in Victoria (Sun 31st Dec 2023), and possible intervention from AEMO has it looks to drop further, leading to possible grid instability.
Looking back at the high demand levels seen in the past two days in Queensland
Taking a quick look back at two days of extreme levels of demand in Queensland during the 'sleepy period' between Xmas and New Year.
Queensland electricity demand climbs higher still, on Friday 29th December 2023
Some quick initial notes about the second day of remarkably high demand in QLD during the normally 'sleepy' period between Xmas and New Year (Fri 29th Dec 2023).
AEMO forecasts that tomorrow’s demand in QLD (i.e. Fri 29th Dec 2023) will be higher than today
Second short article on Thursday evening 28th December 2023, looking forward to Friday evening 29th December 2023.
QLD ‘Market Demand’ climbs past 9,500MW on Thursday 28th December 2023
Noteworthy that in the sleepy period between Christmas and New Year the QLD region can exceed 9,500MW (fast approaching an all-time maximum) on the first day of a two-day state wide heatwave.
RERT negotiations underway in NSW … at the same time as the NSW spot price is negative and forecast spikes have disappeared
A strange coincidence with the AEMO 'intending to commence' negotiations about Reserve Trader for NSW - for this afternoon/evening.