Last article today – and a short and cryptic one – which follows a bit of ‘show and tell’ with a customer late today - about strange forecasts (in P30 predispatch) for NSW on Saturday evening 10th October and Sunday morning 11th October 2026.
A keen-eyed reader pointed us, today, towards an interesting predispatch outcome for the new PEC2 interconnector.
Earlier this morning (Fri 9th Oct 2026) we documented a 512MW (or ~9%) drop in demand in QLD. A few hours later – at the 10:25 dispatch interval (NEM time) – we recorded a 426MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in VIC.
An ez2view client and avid WattClarity reader was fast off the mark with a tip to look at Waratah BESS - which (via charging at the time) contributed to the price spike in QLD and NSW.
We’ve already observed some ‘Elevated prices (in QLD and NSW) on Friday morning 9th October 2026 … and then SA a little later’. Later on in the morning we noticed several coincident (or possibly related?) events in QLD.
My ‘elevated prices’ alerts have been quiet for a lengthy period (apart from the odd spikes for FCAS in Tasmania). So a string of alerts for prices > $500/MWh in QLD and NSW, and later SA (on Fri 9th Oct 2026) are worth noting.
My ez2view Mobile App alert triggered, to let me know that there’d been a significant drop in ‘Market Demand’ in the NSW region (down 622MW in the 12:40 dispatch interval Wednesday 7th October 2026).
As has been the case for many years, a number of us will be attending All Energy Conference and Exhibition in 3 weeks in Melbourne (Wed 28th and Thu 29th Oct 2026). Will we see you there?
Sophie’s article on RenewEconomy drew our attention to the fact that Offshore Wind Victoria had recently published this 12-page glossy about ‘Victoria offshore wind auction – Australian-fires Request for Proposal now open’.
The latest MT PASA results, published today (Tuesday 6th October 2026) show no Low Reserve Conditions forecast.
Guest author, Allan O'Neil takes a look at one particular dispatch interval (09:20 on Sunday morning 4th October 2026) to explore an instance of counter-priced flow incorporating the South Australian and neighbouring regions (including via PEC Stage 2).
Anita, Gilles and Lachlan from ERM explain why corporate buyers can't count on abundant renewable supply, as expiring contracts, data centre growth, coal retirements and delivery risks converge on a 2030 contracting cliff in the NEM.
Capacity of batteries and hydro is covering capacity lost with retiring thermals. That is, assuming the anticipated developments do eventuate.
A summary of key takeaways from an Australian perspective at the 2026 CIGRE Paris session — where the ongoing challenges of IBR interactions and the impact of data centres appear to be consistent themes across power systems globally.
Four weeks ago we asked two questions 'where is the Energy/Capacity going to come from (in just 2 years) to replace all that Energy that Yallourn has been producing this winter?'. Here's the start of an answer to that question, though still incomplete...
We look at five design differences between the Capacity Investment Scheme and the state auction schemes that came before and alongside it — and the improvements we've heard suggested by industry and the Nelson Review panel.
A year on from our 4-part series about the CIS, we take an updated look at the 89 projects awarded across the scheme's five NEM tenders — comparing what proponents have actually announced compared to the status AEMO assigns them for ESOO reliability modelling.
This is the 2026 edition of our annual review into Q2 spot prices, where we find that average prices fell sharply in all NEM regions compared to Q2 2025, but more importantly, duration curves are changing shape.
Last week our team attended the CEC's Wind Industry Forum, then I presented at the EUAA's National Conference the next day. Moving between them in under 48 hours sharply reminded me how differently the NEM's supply and demand sides frame the challenges ahead.
The trend for declining skill as outlook increases is fairly linear. Encouragingly, outlooks at the 6-day mark still have better skill than random.