A (very) brief introduction to the ‘Q-NIL_BI_RADIAL’ constraint set
A very short article on Thursday 22nd October 2026 looking at the ‘Q-NIL_BI_RADIAL’ constraint set.
All Posts
How batteries responded to their own rise
Guest author Franz David Schaefer compares winter 2025 and 2026 bidding across the NEM’s battery fleet: capacity rotated out of spike capture into the competitive band, while incumbent revenue fell from $85.4m to $13.2m.
Auto-bidders (and optimisers) at twenty paces … at All Energy 2026
Of interest to us is a session at All Energy 2026 I'd paraphrase as 'Autobidders (and optimisers) at twenty paces'. Might see you there?
Three themes … will we see them at All Energy 2026?
Each NEM stakeholder (participant, spectator and commentator) might sum up emerging themes in different ways - I'm sharing 3 Themes I see (and wonder how they will be discussed at All Energy).
System frequency at 11 am in 2026, October update
To the end of September, the frequency dip at 11am appeared to have cemented itself. In October the dip softened, was less consistent.
An unplanned outage of Murraylink on Monday 19th October 2026 (but what is the relevance of the AEMO industrial action?)
Around midday on Monday 19th October 2026, there was an unplanned outage of Murraylink. The AEMO Market Notice about this notes about Protected Industrial Action (but I don't understand if there is a link?)
The proximate cause
Last Monday’s spot price volatility in New South Wales has prompted gigatokens’ worth of analysis on social and mainstream media. This post aims to cut through all these to the proximate cause?
~500MW reduced capability to flow south on QNI, as one other factor contributing to NSW volatility on Monday 12th October 2026
In this article, we take an initial look at (restricted) flow capability south over QNI during Monday afternoon (12th October 2026), to help support the rising NSW demand - hence feeding into the volatility.
Cloud cover over Small Solar on Monday 12th October accelerated growth in ‘Market Demand’ in NSW
In this article we take the estimated gross injections from Small Solar (both AEMO and APVI estimates) across both days – and compare them, to gain some sense of what the quantum and timing of ‘missing’ Small Solar might have been on Monday 12th October...
Forecast LOR2 *not* declared in QLD on Thursday 15th October 2026, or Friday 16th October 2026
For both Thu 15th and Fri 16th Oct 2026, AEMO issued similar market notices, stating 'Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) condition NOT declared in the QLD Region...'
Guest Authored Posts
How batteries responded to their own rise
Guest author Franz David Schaefer compares winter 2025 and 2026 bidding across the NEM’s battery fleet: capacity rotated out of spike capture into the competitive band, while incumbent revenue fell from $85.4m to $13.2m.
The proximate cause
Last Monday’s spot price volatility in New South Wales has prompted gigatokens’ worth of analysis on social and mainstream media. This post aims to cut through all these to the proximate cause?
Detailed Analysis
Yes – Unscheduled Price Responsive Resources did deliver price/demand oscillations in NSW on Monday 12th October 2026
Demand-side responses did occur in the face of large NSW price fluctuations.
A framework for exploring what factors were contributing to the volatility in NSW on Monday 12th October 2026
Here's a short article identifying (part of) a framework that might be useful - for those who want to complete a fuller explanation of the volatility experienced in NSW on Monday 12th October 2026 (which was not caused by just one factor).
Supply-side capacity in the NEM over the next 10 years (v1)
Capacity of batteries and hydro is covering capacity lost with retiring thermals. That is, assuming the anticipated developments do eventuate.
Team Australia in Paris: Five observations from CIGRE 2026
A summary of key takeaways from an Australian perspective at the 2026 CIGRE Paris session — where the ongoing challenges of IBR interactions and the impact of data centres appear to be consistent themes across power systems globally.
A partial answer to the questions ‘where is the Energy/Capacity going to come from’ … after Yallourn closure?
Four weeks ago we asked two questions 'where is the Energy/Capacity going to come from (in just 2 years) to replace all that Energy that Yallourn has been producing this winter?'. Here's the start of an answer to that question, though still incomplete...
How the CIS differs from state-based underwriting schemes, and what the industry has suggested about it so far
We look at five design differences between the Capacity Investment Scheme and the state auction schemes that came before and alongside it — and the improvements we've heard suggested by industry and the Nelson Review panel.
Revisiting the CIS-awarded project pipeline, ahead of the ESOO 2026
A year on from our 4-part series about the CIS, we take an updated look at the 89 projects awarded across the scheme's five NEM tenders — comparing what proponents have actually announced compared to the status AEMO assigns them for ESOO reliability modelling.
A down year: a review of Q2 2026 spot prices
This is the 2026 edition of our annual review into Q2 spot prices, where we find that average prices fell sharply in all NEM regions compared to Q2 2025, but more importantly, duration curves are changing shape.