It’s quite a topical question (that we’ve contributed to recently), so I thought I would have a look at what is noted within the ESOO about the looming closure of Yallourn.
We noted a ~500MW jump in 'Market Demand' in Victoria just after 11:00 on Friday 28th August 2026 that was not forecast in advance. We wonder about 'three hours free' effects...
The Stanwell Power Station coal units are some of the best performing coal units in the NEM … which is what made this full-load trip on Thursday 27th August 2026 just prior to 12:00 unusual.
Prompted by a RenewEconomy article, curiosity about the new Quorn Park Hybrid Facility (Solar/BESS) led me to this article.
Yesterday we wrote about ‘The grand ESOO Switch-a-Roo continues in 2026 … but hasn’t that approach jumped the shark?’. Following a tip from a reader (thanks!) this article at least helps to explain *when and why* the switch came about.
On Tuesday 25 August SA Power Networks had planned to conduct its annual test of its ability to temporarily curtail rooftop solar generation.
NEM demand tragic and occasional WattClarity guest author Allan O'Neil drills into an apparent discrepancy in AEMO's demand calculations following the 1 July 2026 transition of the Basslink interconnector from MNSP market participant to Regulated status.
This article is a first look inside the 2026 ESOO. It looks more at how the modelling is framed, and results presented - rather than the details of the modelling itself.
Breaking a run of a Thursday Release in late August over 3 consecutive preceding years, the AEMO released the 2026 ESOO on Tuesday 25th August 2026. Here's a first article, with links to news media coverage.
Noting that the Tamar Valley CCGT station switched back online again, from Monday afternoon 24th August 2026.
NEM demand tragic and occasional WattClarity guest author Allan O'Neil drills into an apparent discrepancy in AEMO's demand calculations following the 1 July 2026 transition of the Basslink interconnector from MNSP market participant to Regulated status.
Krishan Pal Birda from Rystad takes a look at winter 2026 gas demand in south-eastern Australia, and explores what it might mean for future years.
We look at five design differences between the Capacity Investment Scheme and the state auction schemes that came before and alongside it — and the improvements we've heard suggested by industry and the Nelson Review panel.
A year on from our 4-part series about the CIS, we take an updated look at the 89 projects awarded across the scheme's five NEM tenders — comparing what proponents have actually announced compared to the status AEMO assigns them for ESOO reliability modelling.
This is the 2026 edition of our annual review into Q2 spot prices, where we find that average prices fell sharply in all NEM regions compared to Q2 2025, but more importantly, duration curves are changing shape.
Last week our team attended the CEC's Wind Industry Forum, then I presented at the EUAA's National Conference the next day. Moving between them in under 48 hours sharply reminded me how differently the NEM's supply and demand sides frame the challenges ahead.
The trend for declining skill as outlook increases is fairly linear. Encouragingly, outlooks at the 6-day mark still have better skill than random.
Uncertainty fluctuates considerably in the 6-day ahead forecasts. Some locations, appear to be generally more predictable than others, Queensland sites in particular.
Next layer of the onion, in investigating the eerily similar (and closely related) frequency spikes outside the NOFB on Friday 10th April 2026 and Saturday 11th April 2026.
This piece draws some parallels between the previous solar boom-bust cycle and the current battery buildout, and asks whether a 'battery correlation penalty' may already be taking shape.