Carl Daley of EnergyByte, examines recent energy and gas price volatility, leading to the conclusion that the May to July period in QLD and NSW has been the biggest shock to the spot market in history, and the forward price movements are rivalling the record setting year of 2007.
A short article marking (yet) another volatile evening in the NEM in this ‘elephant’ of a Q2 2021… now with some added challenges for gas-fired generation.
Carl Daley of EnergyByte examines the ramifications of the Callide Power Station outage and discusses the big losers and winners from the situation.
Third short article this evening, after it looks like we’ve escaped from a tight supply/demand balance (reasonably) unscathed.
Yesterday evening (Tue 9th June 2020) saw an example of ‘dunkelflaute’ across the NEM. It’s a phenomenon we will see increasingly as the transition progresses, so it’s something we should be seeking to understand, and address, with real world solutions and not rose coloured glasses.
Guest author, Allan O’Neil does a masterful job with limited time in reviewing some of the goings-on in the NEM (particularly VIC and SA) on Thursday 30th January 2020
A brief overview of a stressful afternoon/evening in the NEM, where a confluence of events (heatwave-driven high demand, low wind, coal unit trip, etc…) drive LOR2 low reserve condition notice in both VIC and SA, and gear AEMO up to call on Reserve Trader (yet again!)
Took 2-3 times longer than planned (as there were a few different interesting observations that came out) but here is our initial – and perhaps only! – review of what happened in South Australia on Thursday 19th December 2019 (i.e. yesterday).
Back at work this week and (with curiosity getting the better of me) I have another look at what happened last Thursday and Friday in the South Australian and Victorian regions of the NEM.
Some snapshots from NEMwatch recording a day where NEM-wide demand breached 33,000MW and prices spiked above $1000/MWh in VIC and SA
The first day of scorching summer temperatures for the year has been matched with elevated electricity prices in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia for most of the day. …
The surge in NEM spot prices since 2015, and related impacts on contract and retail prices, have been extensively discussed and analysed in many forums, from ACCC inquiries to Twitter….
One of our guest authors, Allan O’Neil, takes a closer look at what happened in the South Australian region of the NEM on Monday 9th July 2018
Returning to the theme of analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2017 and 2016 due to Q2 historically being an uneventful period) we see that prices have backed off from the “off the charts” level of 2017, but are still much higher in all regions than most other regions. In some cases results are second worst in 20 years.
The start of some analysis that helps to identify the variety of factors that combined to give a shaky balance between supply and demand in NSW last week.
On a day when high temperatures drove demand in Victoria above 9,000MW (and NEM-wide demand above 30,000MW) we saw some price volatility – with prices in VIC and SA up around $14,000/MWh
Yesterday (Sunday 28th January) saw electricity demand (both Scheduled and Operational) above 9,000MW in the heat. Others have noted this was the highest-ever non-working day demand in Victoria, but I have not delved in detail.
The wholesale cost of electricity has risen (too fast, too high) in recent years. However let’s not let ourselves be conned into believing that this has arisen, now, because of the creation of the NEM back in 1998.
Some thoughts from guest author, Connor James, about “what’s next” in response to energy user concerns about high and escalating prices.
A timely reminder from Rod Sims (at the ACCC) this week that there are a number of factors driving electricity price higher – not just a single “smoking gun”