Following several different warnings of high temperatures forecast for the lead-in to Tuesday 26th January 2021 (whatever you want to call that day) I’ve taken a quick look at what it’s currently forecast to mean for the NEM…
high regional demand
It feels like a lifetime ago, already, but I do vaguely remember that we released our Generator Statistical Digest 2019 last week, on Tuesday 28th January 2020. All the tasks that I had scheduled to follow on from that launch…
Guest author, Allan O’Neil does a masterful job with limited time in reviewing some of the goings-on in the NEM (particularly VIC and SA) on Thursday 30th January 2020
Published at 12:02, this is a view looking forward to the expected (very high) peak in electricity demand across the NEM this evening.
A brief overview of a stressful afternoon/evening in the NEM, where a confluence of events (heatwave-driven high demand, low wind, coal unit trip, etc…) drive LOR2 low reserve condition notice in both VIC and SA, and gear AEMO up to call on Reserve Trader (yet again!)
Not looking crash hot for the NSW region this afternoon…
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might have been expected, but it certainly wasn’t incident-free. A very…
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.
Took 2-3 times longer than planned (as there were a few different interesting observations that came out) but here is our initial – and perhaps only! – review of what happened in South Australia on Thursday 19th December 2019 (i.e. yesterday).
With Queensland temperatures (even at the Brisbane airport) exceeding 40 degrees Celcius today, the electricity demand was also high – though still below the all-time record.
A new peak Scheduled Demand and Operational Demand in Queensland today with Scheduled Demand still over 9,100 MW after 8 PM.
Queensland experienced a new record for Scheduled Demand for electricity today – but what’s particular staggering is how late in the day it happened!
Yesterday (Sunday 28th January) saw electricity demand (both Scheduled and Operational) above 9,000MW in the heat. Others have noted this was the highest-ever non-working day demand in Victoria, but I have not delved in detail.
With high temperatures forecast for Thursday and Friday, here’s a quick look at what might be in store…
A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high
Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.
AEMO forecasts higher demand in Victoria (and South Australia) tomorrow with the hot weather – and a slight LOR1 warning.
With hot weather forecast for NSW this Thursday (especially in inland areas) it’s no surprise to see that the AEMO is forecasting higher demand on the day. Linked to this there is also a slight negative (local) surplus generation forecast.
Queensland demand ramped up, after the sun had gone down Thursday evening, to pass 8000MW for the first time this summer