AEMO released draft of 2022 Integrated System Plan

It’s been a busy week for the extended team across Global-Roam Pty Ltd and Greenview Strategic Consulting.

We’ve run a bit overtime on completion of our mammoth GenInsights21 release.  Refer to my note on Monday this week for more context, and also a head’s up on some of the 28 appendices that will be included in the release.

A big thanks to the additional clients who’ve taken the opportunity presented in this brief delay on the release day to send us their pre-orders prior to release.

Whilst we’ve been ‘head down’ on the completion task, we could not help but notice that the AEMO has made available the draft release of its Integrated System Plan for 2022 yesterday (Friday 10th December 2021), and it has caused quite a stir:

Draft ISP 2022 Main Document (99 pages)

Associated Documentation

Here’s the 3-page overview, for those that want the highlights.

This page on the AEMO website links to other documentation as well, so don’t forget these; Appendix 1 – Stakeholder Engagement Appendix 2 – 2022 Draft ISP Development Opportunities Appendix 3 – Renewable Energy Zones (REZ) Appendix 4 – System Operability Appendix 5 – Network Investments Appendix 6 – Cost-Benefit Analysis Appendix 7 – Power System Security Draft 2022 ISP Chart Data Draft 2022 ISP Generation Outlook Addendum to the 2021 Inputs, assumptions and Scenarios Report

I’ve taken a short break from our own release process to document this here, at least in part because there’s a nice synchronicity between the release of AEMO’s draft 2022 ISP this week, and our release of GenInsights21 in the coming week.

(A)  What’s been said about the AEMO draft 2022 ISP

A quick scan of the main media outlets reveals a number of articles:

1)  Early Friday Morning, Angela MacDonald-Smith wrote ‘Early coal power exit demands $12.5b transmission spend’ in the AFR.

2)  Also up early on Friday was Perry Williams with the headline ‘AEMO plan has coal snuffed out as early as 2040 in power revolution’ in the Australian.

3)  Now at the Guardian, Peter Hannam wrote ‘Australia’s coal-fired power plants likely to shut almost three times faster than expected, report suggests’ on Friday morning.

4)  Via RenewEconomy:

(a)  Giles Parkinson was up early Friday with ‘Brown coal likely to close by 2032, AEMO says, but all coal may be gone by then’ … with the last bit a reference to the even-more-aggressive ‘Hydrogen Superpower’ scenario that was voted 3rd most likely by the panel the AEMO constituted (and ahead of ‘Slow Change’).

(b)  There’s also ‘“Monumental:” Why AEMO’s stunning Hydrogen Superpower scenario can’t be ruled out’.

(c)  There’s also ‘More than 20 per cent of solar may be curtailed in Australia’s renewables grid. Does it matter?’.

(d)  Finally (at least at this point!) there’s also a Podcast with AEMO’s Alex Wonhas and Nicola Falcon to discuss the draft ISP

5)  Also on Friday was David Carroll with ‘Renewables critical as NEM prepares for Step Change’ in PV Magazine.

6)  On Friday Was Mike Foley with ‘Industry, investors bank on no coal power by 2043, market operator says’ in the SMH (and also the Age).

7)  I did not find anything in ABC print media – but there was this ‘Coal phase out prediction’ by Bridget Fitzgerald in the World Today, broadcast Friday afternoon.

… no doubt there are more that I’ve not come across, yet.

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There’s been a greater flurry of commentary on social media – to numerous to single out anything in particular (but a general sense of ‘Wow!’)

(B)  What’s next for the AEMO in the completion of the 2022 ISP

On the 2022 draft ISP Consultation website page, and inside the ISP itself (p16/99), the AEMO notes the following ‘next steps in consultation’ – to assist in the completion of the ISP:

I’ve also added a couple other dates that were visible here and other places.

(C)  What’s next for GenInsights21

It’s quite a coincidence that we’re close to finalising GenInsights21 at the same time as the draft 2022 ISP is published – as we’ve been thinking about the same type of question (i.e. ‘what’s going to unfold in the next 20 years in the National Electricity Market?’), but using a different process for doing so – by taking a number of ‘Deep Dives’ into a wide range of aspects about what’s happened in the NEM over the past 23 years, with a particular focus on more recent times.

So, in a way, GenInsights21 will represent an excellent reader’s companion to those digesting the draft ISP 2022.

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With this note about the draft ISP up, it’s back to the completion task for our GenInsights21 release.  Only a small number of things remaining to do before next week…

You can add both (together) to your Christmas reading list!