Release of Report into Broken Hill blackout in October 2024
On Thursday 5th June 2025, the NSW Government released its 158-page report into ‘The electricity outages affecting Far West NSW in October 2024’.
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Forecast LORx conditions for QLD, NSW and VIC in the coming week
This article uses the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget, snapshot from ez2view at 07:25 on Monday 9th June 2025 to sum up some changing forecasts for LOR1 and/or LOR2 in QLD, NSW and VIC in the...
The commencement of Frequency Performance Payments (FPP)
Yesterday (Sunday 8th June 2025) saw the commencement of the new Frequency Performance Payments (a.k.a. FPP) method.
Cumulative ‘worm line’ view of NEMwide wind production in 2025 Q2 (to Sunday 8th June 2025)
Winter 2025 has arrived, with a cold front driving high wind production - which prompts this initial look in wind production for 2025 Q2 to date.
Large Energy Users feeling the strain (such as at Tomago)
A short article tying together two independent events - both related to Energy Intensive Energy Users
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – under the hood of part 1
Taking a guess at frequency need to earn a positive causer-pays factor through self-forecast biasing appears at-best uncertain in the intervals we review.
Slides circulated, from the Nelson Review briefings during May 2025
Given the instructions were ‘Feel free to share it more widely with your colleagues and networks’, here's the slide deck from the Nelson Review presentations through May 2025.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
A 495MW drop in ‘Market Demand’ in NSW on Thursday morning 5th June 2025
Another short article to note a 495MW drop in demand in NSW (measured in 'Market Demand') to the 10:10 dispatch interval on Thursday 5th June 2025.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
Guest Authored Posts
Stacking Up: Unlocking Multiple Revenue Streams in the NEM
Ben Nethersole from Baringa summarises the different contracting routes available for renewables and storage, and how project business cases are increasingly stacking these together.
Aligning business cases with the current, and future, reality
Following his presentation at the CEC's Wind Industry Forum, Jonathon Dyson shares lessons learned from helping developers and operators of wind projects in solidifying their business case.
Detailed Analysis
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 3 – lunar megawatts
In another style of biasing a self-forecast, "lunar megawatts" represent an expectation of solar farm generation at night when it really should be zero.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 2 – relative accuracy
The forecast differences would contribute to improved lower RMSE and MAE scores, relative to AWEFS_ASEFS, in the weekly performance assessment.
Examples of self-forecasting behaviours – part 1 – biasing
In today’s article (part 1 in this series) we present an example of biasing (at an unnamed solar farm), which we find aligns with FCAS cost mitigation.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for solar units, Q1 2025
47% of dispatch intervals for semi-scheduled solar units are seeing a self-forecast used. When there are gaps, was the unit suppressed?
Is the price right? A historical exploration into the NEM’s price cap
Dan dives into the history of the NEM’s market cap and explores how high-end prices contribute to regional settlement costs and cap payouts.
Adoption and use of dispatch self-forecasting for wind units, Q1 2025
We summarise how wind units are using self-forecasting to-date. The analysis leads us to consider where upcoming market change may lead the industry.
Four days in the NEM in four minutes
Dan shares a short time-lapse video which demonstrates four days worth of activity in the NEM, highlighting the impact of network congestion in QLD and NSW.
How did Cyclone Alfred impact electricity demand?
By day-end on the Friday the 7th demand levels were down more than 40% in the Gold Coast. Other areas were also impacted.