Can you guess these five mystery DUIDs from their longer-term MLF trend? (one sneak peak from GenInsights21)


On Monday this week (8th November) we emailed to our broader contact list for the first time this calendar year, to notify those on the list about the fast-approaching release of our GenInsights21 update to the widely read, and popularly received, GRC2018.

Thanks to those clients who have submitted their new pre-orders for GenInsights21 as a result of Monday’s email.  The number of pre-orders continues to grow.

If you did not receive that email (check your ‘Junk’ folder, as it might have been automatically corralled in there) but want to be on our list, please contact me directly to let us know.

Intended release date of GenInsights21 is Monday 6th December 2021.

Given that today is Thursday 11th November (albeit later into the evening), we’re under 4 weeks away from release date. 

There’s much still to do between now and then, but the multi-pronged approach to analysis we’ve been using is leading to some intriguing observations about different aspects of how the NEM is evolving – including with respect to this energy transition … albeit not without real-time distractions today in QLD and VIC.

If you’ve not done so already – don’t forget that you’re also able to submit your pre-order for GenInsights21 now, in order to have first access to the report when it is released and save on what the cost will be at the time of release (only valid until the time of release).

 

(A)  Mystery DUIDs puzzles

In the lead-up to the publication of the GRC2018 we posted this short article about a ‘mystery DUID’ that displayed some distinct limitations on output capability at high temperatures:

1)  In the lead-up to the release of the GRC2018, I posed the question about a mystery DUID in the article ‘degradation of performance at high temperatures’ on 18th April 2019.

2)  Following release of the GRC2018, I looped back to answer the ‘Which was that ‘mystery DUID’ that apparently ‘can’t stand the heat’*?’ question.

For GenInsights21 we’re not continuing with that particular line of analysis … instead we progressed to showing discrete results for every single DUID in the ‘B’ Pages of the GSD2020, and also in the GSD2019 beforehand.

But I do highlight that the quick puzzle posed for WattClarity readers struck a chord with some readers, and got them guessing … some people just love a puzzle, even if there were no prizes  … see some of the responses examined in the second article!

 

(B)  Quick thoughts about Marginal Loss Factors

In recent times, it’s seemed (to us) that there has been an increasing volume of commentary about Marginal Loss Factors amounts the broader group of energy sector stakeholders.

At a high level, however, we wonder whether a sizeable amount of this commentary is an example of idiom ‘not seeing the woods for the trees’ – such as with a very detailed focus on year-on-year changes in Marginal Loss Factor that …. in a weird sort of a way:

1)  Generates lots of headlines and commentary; but at the same time

2)  Potentially even detracts from the ability of people to see the bigger picture of what could be understood about Marginal Loss Factors.

In GenInsights21 we are progressively working through designs of another ‘Deep Dive’ (focused Appendix) that might help readers understand more about the bigger picture.

 

(C)  Can you guess these four mystery DUIDs?

In the process of doing this, for a bit of fun internally, Daniel Lee posted this image internally yesterday…

2021-11-11-WattClarity-GenInsights21-MLFs-MysteryDUID

… and asked us to guess which DUID lined up with which chart.

Here’s a couple questions that some readers will like to ponder …

Q1)  Mystery Fuel Types

I wonder which of our readers can do the same … especially if we gave a hint and said that the units include:

1)  a coal unit,

2)  a hydro unit,

3)  a wind farm,

4)  a gas-fired unit, and

5)  a peaker.

… not in any particular order!

Q2)  Reasons why?!

For bonus points you might want to think about how their location and the typical operational profile might each (separately) impact on the way in which the AEMO has calculated their marginal loss factor for the 20+ financial years shown.

Q3)  Mystery DUIDs

For more bonus points, perhaps you can even have a stab at what their DUIDs are?

 

Time permitting (and if we remember!) we’ll loop back around after we have finalised and published GenInsights21 (you’re invited to submit your pre-order for GenInsights21 today!)

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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