GenInsights21 released, on Wednesday 15th December 2021


Today (Wed 15 Dec) we have released GenInsights21 – almost  exactly a year to the day when we* started compiling this mammoth release.

*  when I say ‘we’ here, it’s been a collaborative effort between two organisations (us at Global-Roam Pty Ltd, and also Greenview Strategic Consulting), and we’ve been very grateful for assistance provided by a number of others as well.

This report is 622 pages long (including 28 individual ‘Deep Dive’ Appendices), and it’s been prepared as an update to, and extension of, the 180-page analytical component that was included in the Generator Report Card 2018  (the GRC2018 was released approximately 31 months ago).

Given all the words included in the report itself, I’ll try to keep this article succinct – and just answer three main questions.  Other articles will follow in the days and weeks ahead to provide other details.

 

(A)  Why did we develop GenInsights21?

Last Friday, the AEMO released their draft 2022 ISP, and noted that the ‘Step Change’ scenario was considered much more likely – complete with a rapid closure schedule for coal that has left some stunned (and others asking for more).  Two days before the draft ISP, the AEMO also released their ‘Initial Roadmap’ on the NEM Engineering Framework – complete with its  Six Operational Conditions (that are each major changes & challenges in their own right) and a large number of Potential Gaps.

These are both signs that the energy transition is really starting to bite, and get to the complicated part.

A year ago, other organisations were running their own processes to discover all the characteristics that a ‘NEM 2.0’ might require to continue to deliver on the National Electricity Objective (NEO).  We were driven to have a detailed look in the data ourselves, to see what we could uncover.

1)  Our approach has been independent of any other process, and not commissioned by any particular client.

2)  We have focused historically, focusing on what we do best in terms of making complexity understandable, to more fully answer the question:

What can we learn from the past 23 years of the evolution of the NEM (with particular focus on more recent times) that might better inform us for the coming 5 and 20 year periods?

In doing so, we have been encouraged by the overwhelmingly positive response we received 31 months ago with the GRC2018.  A wide range of people really appreciated what we did – so this time we explored further and deeper.

… and we did this because:

1)  The transition is rocketing along, but it is getting more complex and risky

2)  The challenge of 100% renewable is so much more complicated than simply generating the energy from renewable sources!

3)   Rooftop PV is having a significant impact on all the commercial returns of the broader large-scale generation sector, but especially utility-scale solar farms!  The proliferation of rooftop PV as an invisible and (mostly) uncontrollable generation source has limits – we just haven’t found them yet in the NEM.

4)  While new minimum demand records continue to tumble, peak demand requirements have remained high and more challenging to meet when they occur.

These, and other challenges, are explored in GenInsights21.

 

(B)  How can I access GenInsights21 today?

The answer to this question is different, depending on whether you submitted your pre-order already, or whether you’d like to order today:

The Product This is how you can Download GenInsights21

… to gain the benefits now

This is how to Order the GenInsights21 Report

… to benefit from the insights we have uncovered

GenInsights21 Electronic PDF

(released today, Wednesday 15th December 2021)

Clients who have already ordered will be able to download the electronic PDF of the GenInsights21 here, from today:

GenInsights21-Image-CoverPage

GenInsights21 PDF

You’ll need to set up your own unique log-in, using your organisational email address in order to access:

  • it’s a large (50Mb) PDF so keep this in mind when downloading and sharing around your organisation.
  • this process works in Chrome, Edge and Safari (but not currently in Internet Explorer).

One bound hard-copy is also being supplied as well:

  • if we have your best postal address
  • after we’ve completed the printing process (which is only commencing this week).
Please complete this Order Form and send back to us:

GenInsights21-Image-OrderForm

Order Form GenInsights21

After we receive your order, we will:

(1)  Set you up with electronic access at the site above (hence be sure to specify your corporate email address); and

(2)  Deliver your bound-hard copy (hence be sure to let us know where to deliver this); and

(3)  Process your payment and provide a tax invoice.

We look forward to hearing back from you.

 

(C)  An overview of what’s included

It’s all being presented under 3 main sections, as follows:

GenInsights21-Image-Structure

With respect to these sections, here are some brief notes:

1st Section
Summaries
2nd Section
Aggregations
3rd Section
‘Deep Dive’ Appendices
Over ~60 pages (and in particular through 22 Key Observations) we’ve tried to distil what’s in the other 540 pages of the report into a number of ‘so what’s it really mean?’ answers … or deeper level questions in some cases. Across Parts 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 we aggregate data:

Part 3)  By commodity (Energy and each FCAS commodity)

Part 4)  Geographically (by Region, but also by Node)

Part 5)  By Fuel Type

Part 6)  Chronologically

… and in Part 7 we provide a very useful Glossary.

Last week (on Monday 6th December) I began to list some of the 28 individual appendices through which we delve into a wide range of different explorations of data, and NEM history.

1)  In that article, I linked to earlier discussions about some of what was included in these appendices.

2)  In future articles I will expand on that list, but will leave it at that for now.

Stay tuned on WattClarity here for more!

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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