Final figures for wind production through 2024 Q2
We’ve ticked over the end of 2024 Q2, so here’s a short note to recap the long-range wind production statistics.
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A bounce back: a review of Q2 2024 prices
We just witnessed another eventful Q2, with at least four drivers contributing to significant price volatility. This is our annual review of Q2 prices, where we compare these outcomes against the long-term trend.
Where’s the wind gone, through 2024 Q2? … with June perhaps even worse than April or May!
Extending the ‘worm line’ cumulative trend of wind production through 2024 Q2 (to 22nd June) and comparing to 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2020 reveals a picture that is, at the same time, both frightening … but also completely expected (at least for some).
Correlation between low wind Capacity Factor and low IRPM (NEM-wide) in recent evenings + Thursday evening looks likely to be low, as well.
Given what’s happened for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday evening this week (and even tighter supply-demand balance forecast for Thursday evening) we take a look at the correlation between low IRPM and low Capacity Factor across all Wind Farms.
How predictable is the wind (a short Case Study of Thursday evening 30th May 2024)?
An (initial and) short review of the solid block of high aggregate wind yield over the ~3 day date range (late Tuesday 28th May 2024 to late Friday 31st May 2024) … and how much this was expected in advance.
Keeping Up with the Curtailment Part 2: The what and the where
Dan Lee takes a deeper dive into network and economic curtailment, and shares some charts and data maps that demonstrate seasonal effects, and the geographic spread of units affected.
The Grattan report ‘Keeping the lights on’ is worth a read
Enroute to Melbourne today for the EUAA National Conference starting tomorrow, I grabbed some flight time to have a quick read through the Grattan Institute’s latest offering – a 45-page report appropriately titled ‘Keeping the Lights on’: Quite topical that…
Updated trend of ‘ENERGY’ bids in red, green and blue
Last Tuesday 23rd April 2024 I spoke with an audience organised by BofA Securities with respect to ‘Risk, Uncertainty and Volatility in the energy transition’. Here’s one illustration of why the spread of spot prices in the NEM has been increasing in recent years.
A precis of the ‘Exploring Wind Diversity’ analysis completed in Appendix 27 of GenInsights21
Almost 2.5 years since we released GenInsights21, today we’re publishing this article that contains a precis of the analysis included as Appendix 27 under the title ‘Exploring Wind Diversity’.
Optimising a highly renewable NEM from scratch, Part 2
In Part 2 of their modelling and analysis project, David Leitch and Paul Bandarian discuss the modelled results of their sharpe ratio-maximised VRE system, including additional considerations regarding transmission.
Case Study of inertia supplied by source in the NSW grid on Tuesday 14th November 2023
With GenInsights Quarterly Update for 2023 Q4 completed, and some time till the end of 2024 Q1, we’ve looked back at Tuesday 14th November 2023 (when AEMO had concerns about low System Strength in NSW) and looked at the level of inertia actually seen in the grid. A useful Case Study to say ‘what would have happened without Eraring?’
Keeping Up with the Curtailment: 3.7TWh of semi-scheduled economic and network curtailment estimated in 2023
A chart of the the month-by-month semi-scheduled economic and network curtailment totals, along with the top 3 worst hit units over 2023.
Optimising a highly renewable NEM from scratch
David Leitch and Paul Bandarian present and discuss the model they’ve created which uses a maximum Sharpe ratio wind and solar portfolio for the 2025 calendar year, drawing upon data from the AEMO’s 2024 ISP.
Convective downdrafts and high-voltage transmission lines
In light of another transmission tower collapse caused by convective wind gusts, we’ve invited wind loading expert Dr John Holmes to explain this phenomena.
The Generator Statistical Digest 2023 (GSD2023) is released
It’s Thursday 15th February 2024 and (in amongst the detailed analysis relating to Tue 13th Feb 2024 in Victoria) we’re releasing the GSD2023 … the Generator Statistical Digest for the 2023 calendar year.
A look into minimum generation levels at various coal plants, using the GSD2023
Nick Bartels from Greenview Strategic Consulting uses the GSD2023 to examine minimum and maximum generation levels at various coal and gas plants in the market.
Batteries, coal revenues and demand response units: Insights from the GSD2023
David Leitch provides his top insights from reading his (pre-published) copy of our GSD2023 – due to be released later this week.
An initial review of Cohuna Solar Farm through 2023 – including bushfire effects (related to electrical equipment onsite?)
Noting an earlier article on PV Magazine about a direction from Energy Safe Victoria relating to the Cohuna Solar Farm, we take a quick initial look at operations in the AEMO market data.
Dan Lee’s reflections about ‘the year that was in 2023’ via the WattClarity insight service
Yesterday (Thu 22nd Dec 2023), Dan Lee posted a summary of WattClarity service through 2023 on our company website. Today I’m sharing that with WattClarity readers here.
Worth a read – ESIG Report ‘Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems’
This morning I was fortunate to listen into an ESIG Webinar with respect to their report ‘Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems’