We’ve already witnessed four price spikes this afternoon as demand in NSW is approaching its expected peak. P5 forecasts are currently projects prices to remain at very elevated levels for the time being.
Articles by Dan Lee
Some interesting data coming from our forecast convergence widget yesterday afternoon, hinted to us that bushfire smoke is likely to have been impacting rooftop PV generation levels in Victoria.
The sixth transmission tower failure within the NEM in almost four years, has prompted further questions about the physical network and its resilience to severe convective winds.
Using our soon-to-be-released GSD2023, we can compare the market performance of AGL’s Torrens Island BESS against what was published in last week’s half-year results presentation from AGL.
Still trying to make sense of what did and didn’t happen in QLD last night, Dan Lee provides some context to how yesterday’s record-breaking demand compares to similar historical events.
As QLD’s market demand record has already been smashed this afternoon, we’re keeping a close eye on P5 and P30 forecasts, where actuals are landing significantly above all prior forecasts.
A quick summary of the bids/offers for each of the generation fuel types in QLD, as we examine the market conditions over the past four days.
The CleanCo CEO last week participated in a radio interview in which he provided details and a progress update on the long-term outage at Barron Gorge Hydro Station, which was caused by excessive flooding from Cycle Jasper last month.
With Challicum Hills Wind Farm recently celebrating its 20th anniversary, Dan Lee takes a look into the long-term trend of technical and commercial performance of the oldest wind farms in the NEM.
Flooding from Cyclone Jasper has damaged part of the Barron Gorge Hydro Power Station in North Queensland, forcing its units offline until further assessment and repairs.
A short post to note that the AEMO have published a market notice stating an intention to commence RERT negotiations in NSW.
A quick look at Semi-Scheduled Wind UIGF forecasts for this evening, where tight supply-demand is expected in NSW.
Two AEMO market notices late this morning suggest that NSW and QLD are in for tight supply-demand later this week, with an LOR2 condition currently forecast in the former.
A short note following a post from Ben Domensino warning of 40+ degree weather in the Sydney metropolitan area tomorrow.
Prices in SA have spiked to close to the market cap and remained elevated, following the invocation of the ‘I-VS_250’ constraint set due to extreme weather conditions.
The second part of an ongoing case study examining two successive days of low VRE generation in early July 2023. This part examines IRPM, earlier forecasts of available generation and maps the availability by site location.
Thunderstorms impacted parts of South Australia electricity system in the early hours of Tuesday morning, with two syncons tripping and around 30,000 customers experiencing outages.
Energy Minster Chris Bowen has announced that the existing Capacity Investment Scheme will be greatly expanded. This article provides a summary of industry responses, news articles and social media commentary in regards to the policy announcement.
On Monday the AEMO held their annual Summer Readiness Briefing for Summer 2023/24. Meanwhile, the ABC are reporting that the current El Nino has reached ‘strong intensity’.
Dan Lee looks at twenty years of capacity factors for wind farms to see if they are improving in line with recent discussion and long-term modelling assumptions.