A first look at PEC Stage 2 in AEMO’s MT PASA weekly data set
I was curious to see how the PEC Stage 2 (i.e. NSW1-SA1) is being represented in the new data sets now appearing in the MT PASA process. Hence this initial view, which prompts questions.
Energy Transition
A large collection of articles pertaining to the ongoing ‘Energy Transition’ in any of a number of ways.
Specific sub-categories relate to such things as Coal Closure, and other aspects of the transition.
Over one month of continuous production at Tamar Valley Combined Cycle
Whilst we’re speaking about events on Saturday 15th August 2026, worth also noting that today marks over one month of ongoing production from the Tamar Valley combined cycle plant in Tasmania.
Current status of closure date for all 4 x Yallourn units
via 'Forecast Convergence' widget, we see (to date) consistent reporting to the AEMO of envisaged closure of all 4 x units at Yallourn being 1st July 2028.
A week later, AEMO MT PASA run shows only shortfalls in South Australia
Given the discussions about looming Yallourn closure, and the implications of this, worth noting a change in the latest weekly MT PASA run.
An introduction to battery revenue hedging with intraday time block derivatives
Paul Austin explains how utility-scale batteries can use time block derivatives — selling Evening Peak and buying Midday contracts — to lock in intraday spreads and reduce exposure to spot prices, giving a useful baseline for budgeting, investment cases and revenue support scheme bids.
How bidding at Semi-Scheduled units has adjusted for the moving target of ‘negative LGC’
Following a couple articles about the downwards trend of spot LGC price, we look at how that's fed into 'negative LGC' bid prices for VRE.
Reality is dawning … it would take a major miracle to reach 82% by 2030
In the past couple weeks (including at ACES 2026, but also elsewhere) it's seemed that the penny has dropped ... only by a miracle will we achieve 82% by 2030.
‘What’s Yallourn ever done for us?’ Part 1
For a coincidence of several different reasons, here's a quick initial overview of how Yallourn Power Station has been performing over time, and particularly in Winter 2026 ytd.
AEMO’s MT PASA run flags shortfalls forecast for VIC and SA (but the devil is in the details)
In anticipation of this month's release of the 2026 ESOO, a short article noting the forecast shortfalls flagged in this Tuesday's updated MT PASA modelling via MN144738 published at 14:52 (NEM time) on Tue 4th August 2026.
Looking back at the South-West NSW RIT-T through a system strength lens
This article from Nadali Mahmoudi and Liam Atkinson from EPEC Group looks at whether the Dinawan–Darlington Point 330kV upgrade, dismissed in 2022, would have delivered greater system strength benefits than what was recognised at the time.
Another two* bite the dust
One of the more sobering aspects of our being in our 27th year of service is that we’ve lasted longer than some of our clients … and in the course of a 5-day period in July we saw two clients enter Administration
Is the NEM’s battery fleet starting to compete with itself?
Guest author Franz David Schaefer digs into the potential "battery correlation penalty" flagged on this site, running a three-year, per-unit analysis of every NEM battery against a perfect-foresight benchmark — finding batteries may be bidding up their own midday charging costs.
How well forecast in advance was the new all-time record for peak NEM-wide wind?
With memories still fresh of how poorly the batteries performed* in South Australia on 21st and 22nd June 2026, we take a look at another aspect of predictability - with respect to the recent all-time peak in NEM-wide wind production.
AEMO publishes draft ‘Go-Live Plan’ for Project EnergyConnect (re Market Integration)
On Wednesday 24th June 2026, the AEMO published this draft Go-Live Plan for Project EnergyConnect Market Integration.
Basslink on track to operate as regulated interconnector from 1 July 2026
The greatest difference, pre and post July 2025, is in the flows from Victoria to Tasmania.
Reframing the grid discussion from system strength to system behaviour
Bruce Miller talks about why system strength is badly misunderstood. Through analogies using bridges, seeing eye dogs, and bumpy roads, he argues the industry's fixation on fault level and inertia misses the real engineering challenges of the transition — and risks costly, counterproductive fixes.
A further look at wind forecasts in the ST PASA timeframe
The trend for declining skill as outlook increases is fairly linear. Encouragingly, outlooks at the 6-day mark still have better skill than random.
An initial look at 6-day ahead Wind Uncertainty
Uncertainty fluctuates considerably in the 6-day ahead forecasts. Some locations, appear to be generally more predictable than others, Queensland sites in particular.
Snippets from ‘Workshop 3’ (on 11th May 2026) with respect to the ST PASA Replacement Project
We’re approaching the end of May 2026, which means we’re almost 10 months since the 31st July 2025 go-live date for unit-level data (and other changes) in ST PASA. … our ez2view software was upgraded to v9.12 in June 2025 in anticipation of those changes,...
The *basics* of how Project Energy Connect will appear in NEM Data
We're under 5 months away from the appearance of the new NSW1-SA1 interconnector in AEMO's Market Systems (representing 'PEC Stage 2'). Here's 3 basic principles...