Forecast PEC2 targets temporarily violate in predispatch runs on 9th October 2026
A keen-eyed reader pointed us, today, towards an interesting predispatch outcome for the new PEC2 interconnector.
Articles by Linton Corbet
Linton is a Senior Software Engineer and Market Analyst, who joined Global-Roam in August 2020.
Before joining the company, Linton worked at the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) for seven years, including four years as an analyst within their demand forecasting team. Before entering the energy sector, he worked as an air quality scientist in the Czech Republic.
Supply-side capacity in the NEM over the next 24 years (v2)
In the early years of the ISP trajectories, we observe coal retirements happening sooner than slated. For example, Accelerated Transition has all coal retired by July 2033.
PEC Stage 2 enters the ST timeframe
That 1st of October date for go-live is now inside the ‘ST’ (short term) time horizon. As such, we are seeing the new NSW to SA interconnector included in ST-PASA results.
Registration exemption and classification guide gets a review
Want to operate a production unit in the NEM and gain an exemption from needing to register?
Supply-side capacity in the NEM over the next 10 years (v1)
Capacity of batteries and hydro is covering capacity lost with retiring thermals. That is, assuming the anticipated developments do eventuate.
System frequency at 11 am in 2026, September update
The strongest alignment for a free power window-start is when Qld, Vic and NSW all start at 11am, between April and October.
Solar stop test completed in South Australia
On Tuesday 25 August SA Power Networks had planned to conduct its annual test of its ability to temporarily curtail rooftop solar generation.
Initial review of unit output on Wednesday 5th August 2026
Supply fluctuated but was this to an equivalent extent as the recorded interconnector flows would suggest, or the noted demand change in NSW for the 16:25 interval?
Mainland Frequency Wednesday 5th August 2026, how low and when
The nadir we measured was shortly after 16:25: 49.825 Hz, at 16:25:33.
Major change in NSW ‘Market Demand’ on Wed 5th August 2026 – ‘just’ a data glitch, or more?
A sudden drop in NSW demand was followed by apparent recovery in the next interval.
System frequency at 11 am in 2026
By June the dip in frequency just after 11 am is clear.
Basslink on track to operate as regulated interconnector from 1 July 2026
The greatest difference, pre and post July 2025, is in the flows from Victoria to Tasmania.
A further look at wind forecasts in the ST PASA timeframe
The trend for declining skill as outlook increases is fairly linear. Encouragingly, outlooks at the 6-day mark still have better skill than random.
An initial look at 6-day ahead Wind Uncertainty
Uncertainty fluctuates considerably in the 6-day ahead forecasts. Some locations, appear to be generally more predictable than others, Queensland sites in particular.
Daily count of MII market notices confirms sudden increase
A number of readers have asked about the recent increase in market notices for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs (MII).
Mixed sources of semi-scheduled availability on March 23, 2026
We use a chart to see how semi-scheduled unit availabilities changed their origin. With interruptions to SCADA across NSW, many of the inputs that an availability forecast depends on could have been impacted.
Managing bids during the market suspension on 23 March 2026
One feature of a market suspension is the possibility for suspension pricing, which happened in this case. Did it influence energy offers?
Initial energy storage involved in issues
Energy storage levels of NSW grid scale batteries are analysed for behaviour on 23 March 2026.
System frequency while NSW demand yo-yos
Following our observations of "Riding the yo-yo, during NSW market suspension" we inspect system frequency during the day.
Where might a failure of SCADA systems show up in the MMS
With a market suspension notice issued for a failure of SCADA systems, we inspect whether unit MW readings are impacted.