I’m focused on other things at present, but thought it worth this short note with a snapshot from NEMwatch v10 showing the 17:25 dispatch interval on Monday 20th December 2021 with ‘Market Demand’ up in the orange zone* as a result of the hot and humid conditions (see #1), and spot price elevated to $1,300/MWh (see #2) as a result:
The Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin in the QLD ‘Economic Island’ has alerted to yellow level (see #3):
(a) meaning below the 15% sensitivity level,
(b) with a little over 1,000MW of spare capacity unused at any price.
(c) this is because of the constrained imports from NSW (see #4).
We see solar harvest declining through the afternoon with still an hour or so of sunshine to go (see #5) – so the net result in terms of tightness of supply/demand balance will be ‘a race’ between whether solar declines faster than Underlying Consumption (as a result of which Market Demand will stay higher for longer – see #6), or the other way around this evening.
AEMO has shot a pre-emptive warning across the bows with the Low Reserve Condition forecast for later this evening (see #7), albeit only at LOR1 at this point:
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 20/12/2021 16:36:57
Notice ID : 93314
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 20/12/2021
External Reference : PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the QLD Region on 20/12/2021
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO declares a Forecast LOR1 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following period:
[1.] From 1830 hrs 20/12/2021 to 1900 hrs 20/12/2021.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 1131 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 1066 MW.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
END OF REPORT
This evening’s example is just one more case of the types of new market dynamics we’re already increasingly seeing, as which were discussed in ‘Deep Dive’ Appendices 15 & 16 in the GenInsights21 release we made under a week ago. You can submit your orders today, in time for Christmas reading!
Price for 17:40 now up to $10,127.54/MWh and IRPM down to 12% in the QLD ‘Economic Island’ … we might come back to this later.