Announcing development of ‘Generator Insights 2021’, and inviting your pre-order

GRC2018 Theme 2

The Level of Risk in the NEM is Increasing

This theme has been referenced in several articles on WattClarity over the 23 months since the publication of the GRC2018:

1)  including with respect to last Tuesday, 17th April;

2)  with respect to the four headline challenges amongst a very busy summer 2019-20; and

3)  Many more…

One of the ways in which this heightened risk is being manifest in the changed pattern of spot pricing in the NEM – which stems from changed patterns of bidding as discussed on 30th August 2019.

Theme 5

The NEM has developed a ‘them and us’ schism.

In the coverage provided for the GRC2018 by ABC journalist, Stephen Letts (referenced in this article here after release) this was one of the themes that particularly resonated, and was highlighted.

Since the release of the GRC2018, this particular theme was subsequently discussed in a number of articles here – including 9th March 2020 and also on 11th October 2020.

Theme 6

The NEM is becoming increasingly dependent on the weather.

As noted on Saturday, what happened on Tuesday 13th April 2021 (i.e. just last week) was a great example of what we were writing about in this theme.

It was also one of the points reiterated on 11th February 2020 during the midst of a very stressful summer 2019-20.

Theme 8

Thermal plant is ageing, and this brings concerns

Through this theme (and also in ~38 pages in Part 4) we explored various aspects of what we called ‘the dependability’ of the 48 x coal-fired units that remained in the NEM at 31st December 2018.

Particular emphasis was placed on these coal units (distinct from gas and liquid fuelled units) because these units had been the work-horses of the thermal mix to that point in time – and have been since, as well.

One of the measures we investigated was collective unavailability, with some of the discussion extracted into this article on 14th June 2019.

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Given the importance of the performance of these units in the period until closure (and the questions we asked in the GRC2018 about performance in 2018) we will pay particular attention in updating this analysis for a Detailed Appendix in GenInsights21.

Theme 9

Emerging challenges for managing system security

As noted in this article from 12th August 2019, in this theme in the GRC2018 we included a back-calculation of the range of monthly inertia (measured in Megawatt-seconds) experienced in each of the regional grids constituting the NEM.

The declining level in South Australia up until remedial action was taken after the SA System Black is clearly evident.

This was 1 of 3 different types of ‘emerging challenges’ highlighted.

Theme 10

When ‘the sun does not shine and wind does not blow’

This article also highlighted the monthly minimum instantaneous production from all wind farms across the NEM, highlighting how it’s often only in the 1-2% capacity factor range and rarely as high as 5%.

In Theme 10 within the GRC2018 we established how, even across the breadth of the NEM, the best the diversity profile is seen to be is random (i.e. Correlation Co-efficient = 0.0).  What this means was discussed in this theme, and was  copied into this article on 26th July 2019.

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As discussed below, we have already well on the way to having a significant extension to this study completed as an appendix in GenInsights21.

Changing nature of electricity demand

We have scoped out analysis to perform that will provide some context to the changing macro nature of electricity consumption patterns, that define the market for all supply-side option.

This is far more than just looking at what is happening with peak demand and aggregate consumption (the domain of the ESOO for many years).

One aspect to be investigated, for instance, is the (increasing?)  ‘unpredictability for dispatch of fully Scheduled Generation’ discussed in this article on 21st April 2021.

Coal Plant Performance

I’ve already noted above the way in which ‘dependability of coal’ was assessed in the GRC2018.  In hindsight, this should have been addressed in a focused appendix.

With the closure of Liddell fast approaching, the closure of Yallourn now scheduled for 2028, and others to follow (or perhaps even precede), it is very timely to revisit and extend this analysis.

Diversity of Wind

Since the beginning of the year, we have been working with an external analyst to expand on the wind diversity study we included as Theme 10 within Part 2 of the GRC2018.

In particular, what we have been doing is taking our own recommendations for how that study could be extended in order to identify more about such things as:

1)  The pattern of wind harvest, assuming a full build-out of wind farms across the NEM;

2)  How such a pattern would map with electricity consumption patterns;

3)  The nature of surpluses and wind droughts; and

4)  What storage might be able to deliver, as the bridge between the two.

Evolution of Bidding Behaviour

We are endeavouring to deliver a multi-facet analysis of many of these as part of a stand-alone appendix in GenInsights21.

Semi-Scheduled dispatch performance

For a number of months through 2020 we invested time to complete analysis of the nature of collective performance of Semi-Scheduled assets with reference to their Dispatch Targets.

We did this through an ‘Aggregated Raw Off-Target’ metric, as explained in this article from 27th July 2020.

For GenInsights21 we have the ambition to extend and deepen this analysis … especially to see how recent developments have changed these results – such as:

1)  Further increase in installed capacity of Semi-Scheduled assets;

2)  The advent in use of 3rd party self-forecasts; and

3)  Greater awareness of the non-trivial scale of Regulation FCAS costs, attributed to generators via the Causer Pays mechanism.

Many, many more appendices

We’ve identified many other pieces of analysis that can be conducted and included in appendices (and envisage the external analysts we’re separately engaging to contributed will also identify others).

Hence there are likely to be many more appendices included in GenInsights21.