One of the more recent developments we’ve observed in the NEM is the downward trend in gas powered generation, raising concerns as to whether there is more pain to come for east coast industrial consumers.
An animated walk through 19 hours of Saturday 14th January 2017 in the Queensland region of the National Electricity Market – a day we dubbed “sizzling Saturday” not least because of extreme price volatility
Illustrating how the price spike on 14th January flowed through to hedge contract prices.
A starting list of factors that I’d look further into, if I was sucked into the “rabbit hole” of assessing all of the contributing factors leading to the Remarkable Prices seen in Q2 2016 – and which could continue into the future.
Some initial analysis about the remarkable pricing outcomes seen across all regions of the NEM through Q2 2016
The volatility of the NEM was showcased again on Monday as South Australia experienced two major price spikes in the space of an hour. Using NEM-Watch’s play back feature (screenshot below) we were able to relive when the two price spikes hit.
Some thoughts from another guest author, Greg Denton, about the current rule change proposal “Bidding in Good Faith” being assessed by the AEMC.
A walk-through a high-demand day in Queensland (especially remarkable because of the effect of solar PV output).
Some thoughts about why we’ve been seeing an increase in the number of authorised electricity retailers competing in the Australian National Electricity Market, from a new guest author – Connor James
Coincident with the release of the RET Review, activity in the spot market provides some reminders…
After spending a day looking into the future (at prospective generation developments) I noted this reverse correlation between wind and volatility that’s been occurring over the week.
Some worked examples of how several forms of Demand Response (including the proposed new Demand Response Mechanism) might impact wholesale prices, and participant positions.
Some quick observations about the patterns of volatility seen this week in Queensland
Hot and sticky weather in QLD drives demand higher and provides an opportunity for spot price volatility
High temperatures and humidity on Monday 6th January deliver more price volatility, and high demand in Queensland.
High temperatures passing through NSW provided the opportunity for the Colongra gas-fired power station to shake off the cobwebs and have a run for the day.
A snapshot from NEM-Watch capturing the first volatility seen this summer
Some initial analysis looking into the question of whether the increased penetration of solar PV is increasing the variability of scheduled demand to the point that generators can exert more pressure on spot prices.
A quick look at some more volatility experienced in the Queensland region on Wednesday 23rd October
The dispatch price in Queensland spiked to $1,500/MWh at 18:25 and again at 22:40 yesterday evening – triggering jitters in some who fear a return to the volatility of summer 2013.