QLD’s forecast LOR3 (Load Shedding) cancelled for today (Tue 1st Feb) – then reinstated, then escalated


As would be expected with the vagaries of the forecast afternoon/evening weather changing quite quickly, and as a result of the forecast extreme pricing delivering added incentive for participants to try to reshuffle their asset allocations for this afternoon/evening’s times of extreme demand.

1)  I already noted in my third article yesterday how MN94316 notified at 19:59:59 of a maximum 39MW of expected load shedding in the QLD region on Tuesday evening.

2)  In MN94322 published at 21:30:11 yesterday, this warning was cancelled

3)  However this morning at 00:54 the LOR3 Low Reserve Condition warning was reinstated, and warned of a maximum amount curtailed of (only) 3MW at 18:30 today.

4)  Currently, Market Notice 94334 published at 03:00:04 is the latest update, and shows a maximum amount curtailed of 52MW at 18:00 today.  Here’s the full text of this one:

——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     01/02/2022     03:00:04

——————————————————————-

Notice ID               :         94334
Notice Type ID          :         RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description :         LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date              :         01/02/2022
External Reference      :         PDPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 3 (LOR3) in the QLD Region on 01/02/2022

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR3 condition in the QLD region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 94329 has been updated at 0245 hrs to the following:

[1.] From 1800 hrs 01/02/2022 to 1900 hrs 01/02/2022.
The maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 52 MW at 1800 hrs.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO estimates the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event is 1400 hrs on 01/02/2022

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-

Here’s a snapshot from NEMwatch at 07:35 this morning including the look-forward function into AEMO’s current P30 predispatch forecasts

2022-02-01-at-07-35-NEMwatch-QLD-P30predispatch

A few quick notes about this morning’s image:

 

(1)  Extreme prices forecast to last all afternoon/evening in QLD

The image above shows that the current expectations are that the QLD price will spike sky-high from 14:30 this afternoon and last that way all the way through until 00:00 heading into Wednesday morning 2nd February.

1)   If this does ensue, it would be a 10 hour-long run of extreme prices that would blow the Cumulative Price Threshold out of the water

i.e. notwithstanding Tripwire #1 and Tripwire #2 that now exist post 5MS, but a run this long would add something like $1,800,000 to the Cumulative Price, so well past the $1,359,100 Cumulative Price Threshold!

2)  As shown in the NEMwatch snapshot below, we’re already at $491,821 this morning and so not that much further to reach the Cumulative Price Threshold and trigger prices to be capped at (only) $300/MWh

3)  Whilst there are logical reasons to have this rule (to protect wholesale participants from cash flow risks, etc) I do recall observing some perverse outcomes … like spot-exposed energy users switching back ON right at the time supply/demand balance is significantly stretched (I think this was in 2009).

Also worth noting is that the forecast has NSW prices also sky high from 14:30 to 18:30 (NEM Time).

 

(2)  Forecast QLD demand to exceed 10,000MW

Given the current forecast run, the forecast peak of 10,023MW for ‘Market Demand’ would be just below the the all-time maximum set at 10,052MW in the 16:55 dispatch interval on Wednesday 13th February 2019.

Here’s a snapshot taken from ez2viewForecast Convergence’ widget at the 08:40 dispatch interval this morning utilising the ‘Grid’ view and zooming in to focus on the 5-minute periods ending 17:30 and 18:00 (remembering how Tripwire #1 and Tripwire #2 affect the P30 forecasts now we are in 5MS):

2022-02-01-at-08-40-ez2view-ForecastConvergence-QLD-TotalDemand

The bottom row shown in the grid (i.e. the -13 forecast) was produced for 02:30 this morning.  Looking up this column we see that successive forecasts for this evening’s peak in demand have been bouncing around a little, but with the overall trend upwards.

Is it any wonder, with the ‘Weather in Brisbane’ query now reporting an expected peak in temperature of 35°C with 60% humidity:

2022-02-01-at-08-50-WeatherinBrisbane

On the upside, the forecast for tomorrow (Wednesday 2nd February) is not as severe as it was late last week.

 

 

(3)  Forecast decline in Available Generation leading up to 18:00

Would begin to decline from as early as 13:30 (from 10,493MW) to be down 563MW to 9,930MW by 18:00 (i.e. the time of the forecast maximum requirement to load shed).

Here’s two copies of the ez2viewForecast Convergence’ widget focused on ‘Available Generation’ in the QLD region, highlighting some changes:

2022-02-01-at-08-25-ez2view-ForecastConvergence-AvailGen2

 

(4)  Forecast LOR3 (Load-Shedding)

So it is no wonder that the AEMO is iterating through specifics of how much (if any) load shedding will be required this evening.

Hang onto your hats!

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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