Yesterday (Sunday 28th January) saw electricity demand (both Scheduled and Operational) above 9,000MW in the heat. Others have noted this was the highest-ever non-working day demand in Victoria, but I have not delved in detail.
It seems to us that the people at either extreme of the Emotion-o-meter are causing this energy transition to see-saw off the tracks. For this reason they are Villain #3.
A starting list of all the factors I would like to delve into, in order to perform an objective review of what happened last Thursday and Friday in Victoria and South Australia
Reserve Trader dispatched
AEMO announces the possibility of dispatching “Reserve Trader” tomorrow to address a forecast tight supply/demand balance.
With high temperatures forecast for Thursday and Friday, here’s a quick look at what might be in store…
Prompted by a tweet referencing our RenewEconomy-sponsored NEMwatch Widget, we have a quick look at all-time peak instantaneous aggregate wind output in South Australia
A quick review of a hot and sticky day in Queensland that saw high levels of demand reached on a Saturday – with demand peaks tomorrow forecast to be just as high (on a Sunday!). Today saw the first major price spikes in the Queensland region of summer.
AEMO’s demand forecasts for Saturday 6th January 2017 were about 500MW below what the mark turned out to be. It appears that this is due (at least in part) due to difficulties in forecasting intermittent generation which acts to reduce “Scheduled Demand”.
Weather forecasts tell of an expected hot weekend on Saturday (in Melbourne & Adelaide) and then Sunday (in Sydney) – which has led to some news articles talking about “searing heat across the southeast putting energy supplies under pressure”. Let’s not get carried away – it looks like the levels of demand will be pretty moderate.
Today (Wednesday 27th December) sees some wild gyrations in aggregate wind farm output across South Australia. The (current) impossibility in forecasting these gyrations accurately is one of the factors contributing to higher prices seen today in South Australia and Victoria.
Afternoon demand on Christmas Day as low as overnight demand as a result of several factors
A quick review of a day when NSW demand was forecast to be high
Current forecasts at AEMO show NSW demand forecast to peak above 13,500MW (which would easily be the highest December demand in NSW since 2009).
AEMO forecasts NEM-wide demand to exceed 32,000MW tomorrow (Monday 18th December), which is far higher than seen in December 2016, and one reason for the LOR1 low reserve notices.
Demand in Victoria peaked lower than forecast today, but demand forecasts for NSW tomorrow are continuing to climb.
AEMO forecasts higher demand in Victoria (and South Australia) tomorrow with the hot weather – and a slight LOR1 warning.
With hot weather forecast for NSW this Thursday (especially in inland areas) it’s no surprise to see that the AEMO is forecasting higher demand on the day. Linked to this there is also a slight negative (local) surplus generation forecast.
AEMO has adjusted the formula (i.e. constraint equations) used to manage system strength in South Australia, which has been (since mid-2017) by constraining down the output of wind farms under certain conditions.
Queensland demand ramped up, after the sun had gone down Thursday evening, to pass 8000MW for the first time this summer