Worth a short note today to highlight that daytime minimum demand in South Australia has dropped lower still in South Australia, supercharged by mild springtime temperatures (only 18°C in Adelaide currently) and cranked up injections from ‘Small Solar’ (i.e. rooftop PV).
(You’ll note we have switched the installed copy of NEMwatch to displaying AEMO’s estimates for rooftop PV compared with the APVI estimates shown up until and including NEMwatch v10.1 – we have done this for several reasons, including the make the data sets from a uniform provider. There is interpolation utilised between the 30-minute estimates for rooftop PV from the AEMO).
The 213MW point above is well down towards the bottom of the relative scale (hence the deep blue region colour) – indeed this mark is (at the time I started writing) the lowest-in-NEM-times point for this measure, with the exception of the period surrounding the SA System Black in September 2016. Victoria is quite low as well, we see.
I’ve also noted on the NEMwatch snapshot how:
1) A significant drop in production across the three ‘wholesale’ fuel types supplying in the South Australian region – we can clearly see a drop from Gas-fired power, and a larger drop from Wind generation, but there is also a drop in Large Solar as well (all squeezed out of the market by invisible rooftop PV).
2) Transmission constraints QLD-NSW and VIC-NSW are protecting spot prices in NSW currently … with the other regions being consistently below $0/MWh through the day (a trend that is increasing … such a shame that the we collectively did not make the effort to make Demand Response work with negative prices – with the much touted ‘Demand Response Mechanism’ only a month away from commencement).
Those with a licence to NEMreview can open their own copy of this query here.
… but no sooner had I added this in than I see the low point edge lower (down to 187MW for the 12:50 dispatch interval) and then lower still (to 184MW for the 13:20 dispatch interval)!
1) Those who want to understand more of the gory details of how demand is ‘measured’ the linked article can help … not as easy as it might otherwise seem!).
2) Quite likely that AEMO will be along in the next couple days to report the official figures using after-the-fact verified ‘Operational Demand’ methodology.
What’s happening today is merely an illustration of how quickly these ‘low point’ records are continuing to tumble, with no end in sight…
Plenty of challenges steaming down the road for balancing supply and demand, and keeping the lights on in the NEM (with the Invisible Man just one of the challenges)!
PS added Tuesday 28th Sept 2021
As expected, the following day (Monday 27th Sept) the AEMO confirmed the new Minimum Operational Demand point down at 236MW for the half-hour ending 14:00 NEM time:
The image above was a tweet here from the AEMO account … but the growing conversation here on LinkedIn might be of particular interest.