Further thoughts on the emergence of the “Solar Correlation Penalty”
Some further thoughts on what we’ve termed a “Solar Correlation Penalty” which point-view of some specific dispatch intervals seems to suggest is occurring
Articles by Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time.
As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.
Analytical Challenge – In a complex system like the NEM, it’s almost always numerous factors/changes that combine to produce an outcome
All too often people (including us sometimes, unfortunately) are quick to attribute some particular outcome to a single contributing factor. Almost always this is an over-simplification.
Analytical Challenge – remembering that it’s impossible to know motive (but does not stop us guessing)
Highlighting the temptation to ascribe motivation to others – despite the fact that we understand that we can never know for sure.
Recapping a shaky week for the supply-demand balance in the NSW region last week (Mon 4th June to Fri 8th June 2018)
The start of some analysis that helps to identify the variety of factors that combined to give a shaky balance between supply and demand in NSW last week.
Electricity demand stopped declining after 2014 (on a NEM-wide, Annual Average basis)
A comment made by TransGrid at the Energy Networks 2018 conference today jolted me to update my (somewhat) outdated paradigm of declining demand.
Winter 2018 in the NEM
A collection of articles about events that occurred through winter 2018 in the NEM (i.e. from 1st June to 31st August 2018)
AEMO issues LOR2 warning for South Australia for next Thursday, 31st May
Yesterday (Thu 24th May) AEMO issued a Low Reserve Condition notice (at LOR2 level) for South Australia next Thursday 31st May. We take a quick look….
An updated look at daily curtailment of aggregate wind farm output across South Australia
This morning over on Twitter, I was pulled into a discussion that had started with respect to volume of wind energy curtailed in South Australia: The genesis of this twitter conversation was the AEMO’s “Quarterly Energy Dynamics – Q1…
Helping our clients make sense of (and grasp the opportunities in) the AEMO’s new MT PASA data sets
A brief first look at AEMO’s new MT PASA data sets – as we push forward in the next upgrade of our ez2view software to help our clients understand the data, and the opportunities (and threats) that the data reveals.
The “Solar Correlation Penalty” has already arrived in the NEM
Already we are seeing the highly correlated output of solar PV deliver interesting challenges for the NEM – both to the project proponents themselves, and also to the “everything else” that supplies what’s left of the underlying demand from electricity from any source.
A timely reminder of the need for *much* more diversity in wind harvest patterns
Alerted by our NEMwatch dashboard, I delve into the data and see a scary degree of correlation between the (very low) output of wind farms in south-east South Australia, and (similarly low) output from newer wind farms in northern NSW.
Network outage, and low wind, combine to drive spot price volatility in the SA region on Thursday 26th April
An unexpected network outage in the south-east of South Australia restricts supplies from Victoria at a time of low wind supply in South Australia and results in the dispatch price spiking to $14,200/MWh from 11:30 and oscillating for the afternoon
An explainer about electricity demand [take 1]
Following from a steady stream of questions we receive in relation to a range of our products (but in particular with respect to “the RenewEconomy Widget”) we’ve invested some time to put this post together to explain some of what we understand about electricity demand.
Just because a company wears a “green halo”, that does not mean it can disrespect its potential customers [UPDATED]
An advertisement seen on TV in recent days from a (relatively) new entrant in the energy sector reinforces, to me, the need for the energy sector more broadly to do a much better job of respecting its prospective customers.
Autumn 2018 in the NEM
A collection of articles about things we see occurring in the NEM.
Queensland region sees a new record peak Scheduled Demand – at 18:50 on Monday 12th February
Queensland experienced a new record for Scheduled Demand for electricity today – but what’s particular staggering is how late in the day it happened!
Available Generation reduction across Loy yang A and Loy Yang B over Sunday evening was only 420MW
A brief look at the numbers with the temporary coal supply issue affecting Loy Yang A and Loy Yang B overnight
High electricity demand forecast for Queensland – on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week
Looks like being an interesting day on Wednesday next week (14th February 2018) with high temperatures currently forecast for parts of both QLD and NSW
Victorian demand rises above 9,000MW – which (in combination with other factors) leads to a volatile day in the southern regions
On a day when high temperatures drove demand in Victoria above 9,000MW (and NEM-wide demand above 30,000MW) we saw some price volatility – with prices in VIC and SA up around $14,000/MWh
Queensland’s Scheduled Demand for electricity topped 9,000MW today (Wed 31st Jan) for the first time in summer 2017-18
Electricity demand in Queensland today reached 9072MW in the 16:40 dispatch interval, passing 9,000MW for the first time this summer.