Updated tabulated record of minimum demand points – for each region, and NEM-wide – following 31st Oct 2021


Under two weeks ago (Monday 18th October 2021) I put together this record of minimum demand points for each region, and NEM-wide minimum demand as well.

I thought it would be a useful reference point for me in future.  However after what happened on Sunday 31st October 2021 (and my own misreading of the prior record for NSW … oops!) I have updated this and added some formatting, to hopefully make it easier for me next time.

 

Area ‘Ordinary Time’ Record

prior to Sunday 17th October

‘Extraordinary Time’

Extreme Low Point

How did this change, after the experience of …

Sunday 31st October 2021?

NEM-wide

As a result of what happened on Sunday 17th October 2021 (as noted in the ‘Part 3’ article on the day), we noted here that there was a new record set for ‘minimum demand’ on a NEM-wide basis:

1)  A low point for Scheduled Demand (12,536MW target for 12:55 dispatch interval) … which eclipses the prior record set on .

2) A low point for Operational Demand (12,936MW measured in half-hour ending 13:00) … which eclipses the prior record.

Looking back at 31st October 2021, I see now that:

1)   Scheduled Demand only dropped as low as 12,859MW at 12:50 … so no new record.

2)  Operational Demand appears to have dropped to 13,279MW for the half-hour ending 13:00, so no record there, either!

QLD Region

On Sunday 3rd October 2021 (as noted in this first article on the day) there was a new .

As note in that article:

1)  the low-point for the ‘Total Demand’ figure published by AEMO was 3,672MW as target for the 11:10 dispatch/trading interval.

2) A low point for Operational Demand (3,784MW measured in half-hour ending 11:30).

The Queensland demand dropped extra-ordinarily low on 25th May 2021 in the aftermath of the Callide C4 Catastrophe.

The AEMO Incident Report on the event, published 8th October 2021, reveals that load shedding occurred

1)  not just due to under-frequency load shedding (UFLS);

2)  but also due to low voltage and other factors.

As a result of this, the ‘Scheduled Demand level fell to 2,870MW in the early afternoon.

The levels for QLD demand seen on Sunday 31st October were a long way above the prior minimums.

NSW Region

As a result of what happened on Sunday 17th October 2021 (as noted this ‘Part 2’ article), we saw that there was a new record set for ‘minimum demand’ for the NSW region:

1)  A low point for Scheduled Demand (4,286MW target for 12:20 dispatch interval) … which eclipses the prior record.

2) A low point for Operational Demand (4,425MW measured in half-hour ending 13:00) which eclipses the prior record.

Got myself confused today in NSW – only looking at 4th October and thinking it was still the record (missing 17th October)!

Looking back at 31st October 2021, I see now that:

1)   The level set here today (4581MW) a fair way above that 17th October record.

2)  Operational Demand appears to have dropped to 4,754MW for the half-hour ending 13:00, so no record there, either!

VIC Region

It was an auspicious Christmas Day 2020 (as noted in this article) when Victoria set a low-point for minimum demand.  As noted in that article:

1)  The Scheduled Demand measured by target ‘Total Demand’ reached a low of 2,259MW for the 12:50 (NEM Time) dispatch interval.

2)  When looking at the (AEMO’s more favoured) ‘Operational Demand’ measure, the new low point was 2,529MW in the half-hour ending 13:00 (NEM Time) on the Xmas Friday.

The levels for VIC demand seen on Sunday 31st October were below those old Christmas Day 2020 records:

1)   A new record was actually set for Scheduled Demand down at 2,227MW for the 13:15 dispatch interval as noted here.

2)  On an Operational Demand basis, it was 2,402MW in the half-hour ending 13:30.

…. however it’s important to remember that VIC demand was still artificially suppressed by having some number of people still offline following Thursday’s storms!

SA Region

On 26th September 2021 (as noted in this article) we recorded a low point for Scheduled Demand in SA down at 184MW for the 13:20 dispatch interval (NEM Time).

In conjunction with this, the (AEMO’s more favoured) ‘Operational Demand’ measure was down at 236MW in for the half-hour ending 14:00 (NEM Time).

The South Australian demand dropped extra-ordinarily low on 26th September 2016 in the process of the SA System Black.

Immediately at the point of the system black event, the ‘Scheduled Demand level fell to only 5MW in the early evening.

The levels for SA demand seen on Sunday 31st October were new record low points:

1)  For Scheduled Demand the new record low point was 117MW for the 12:15 dispatch interval.

2) For Operational Demand it was 188MW in the half-hour ending 13:00 (NEM Time).

TAS Region

I can’t recall publishing a single article about ‘minimum demand’ in Tasmania … as it’s a ‘mainland region affliction’ that it seems TAS has been somewhat immune against – due in part to the relatively low penetration of rooftop PV systems in the Apple Isle.

However in the interests of completeness, I’ve did try to have a quick look at numbers in NEMreview v7  and see that there are a number of different dips to what appears to be ‘unnatural low points’:

1)  Including the two lowest points noted in the next column…

2) … But not limited to those.  I don’t have time today to try to comprehensively exclude all ‘unnatural low points’, so will just leave these records blank for now

Still to be filled in!

I did find this article published back on Monday 23rd February 2015 about a significant trip of Tasmanian demand.

As a result of this trip (and after checking in NEMreview v7) I can see that:

1)  The Scheduled Demand measured by target ‘Total Demand’ reached a low of 413MW for the 01:05 (NEM Time) dispatch interval on 23rd February 2015.

2)  Noting that records for (AEMO’s more favoured) ‘Operational Demand’ measure don’t go back before 11th December 2014, the lowest points I can see were both 552MW … and occurred:

(a)  In the half hour ending 01:30 (NEM Time) on 23rd February 2015; but also

(b)  In the half hour ending 16:00 (NEM Time) on 21st December 2014 (which appears to be another occasion of ‘unnatural low point’ … at which point ‘Scheduled Demand’ was 543MW).

Nothing to write home about, in terms of levels of Tassie demand on Sunday 31st October 2021!

 

Will continue to keep watching this…

 

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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