A collection of articles pertaining to summer 2023-24 in the NEM – including;
1. Forecasts and concerns ahead of time
2. What unfolded in real time through the summer
3 . More considered articles looking backwards on the summer period.
Two AEMO market notices late this morning suggest that NSW and QLD are in for tight supply-demand later this week, with an LOR2 condition currently forecast in the former.
The NEM-wide demand peaked (just!) above 30GW on Friday afternoon/evening 8th December 2023.
A short note following a post from Ben Domensino warning of 40+ degree weather in the Sydney metropolitan area tomorrow.
Second article on Friday 8th December 2023, about two NSW spikes that top-and-tail the volatility written about earlier in South Australia.
Prices in SA have spiked to close to the market cap and remained elevated, following the invocation of the ‘I-VS_250’ constraint set due to extreme weather conditions.
Some volatility in QLD and NSW on Tuesday 5th December 2023.
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, takes a detailed look at how VIC1-NSW1 transfer capability has been limited frequently due to constraints related to the 051 line in southern NSW, and what it means in terms of inter-regional settlements residue accumulations, market efficiency overall, and the energy transition.
On Monday the AEMO held their annual Summer Readiness Briefing for Summer 2023/24. Meanwhile, the ABC are reporting that the current El Nino has reached ‘strong intensity’.
A quick note about a forecast by AEMO of shortfall in system strength in NSW region for Tuesday 14th November 2023.
A short note to echo EnergyAustralia’s warnings (reported in the Australian) about possible coal supply issues for Mt Piper power station.
Tuesday 19th September 2023 and the Bureau of Meteorology has declared that El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are underway
The print version of the AFR today talks about possible industrial action at Kogan Creek power station – prompting us to take a quick look at current Availability projections.
Last Thursday (31st Aug 2023) the AEMO published the ESOO 2023, including forecasts of some possibility of unserved energy in Victoria and South Australia this coming summer 2023-24 (above the Interim Reliability Measure). Guest author Allan O’Neil takes a look.
Yesterday (Thu 31st Aug) we saw the release of the 2023 ESOO. Today (Fri 1st Sept 2023) AEMO calls for tenders for supply of ‘Reserve Trader’ in VIC and SA for summer 2023-24.