I opened the print version of the AFR this morning and saw that Angela Macdonald-Smith and Mark Ludlow had written about ‘Industrial action spreads to power as Kogan Creek hit’.
You’ll need to read the AFR article for more detail about what might unfold there, in terms of action onsite – but my first thoughts were more in terms of what this might mean for the … remembering the the recently released ESOO 2023 pointed to the tightest locations of supply-demand balance for the coming summer being in VIC and SA (but also remembering that it’s an interconnected market, so additional problems in one location may well propagate elsewhere).
It may well change into the future (perhaps including because of this industrial action) but I thought I’d leave this article with the following ‘Forecast Convergence’ snapshot from ez2view focused down to just the (single) Kogan Creek unit:
I’ve added a few annotations to help reinforce how this widget allows users to ‘look up a vertical’ and understand ‘that other dimension of time’. Right at the top of the diagonal (i.e. around the ‘now’ point) we see a slight smudge of red (which, because of how I’ve set the colour scale, represents 0MW availability), so I choose to zoom into see more detail:
The display has ticked over 2 x dispatch intervals but (because of the cadence of this data) the data displayed will be the same. In particular we see that:
1) The unit is currently running as I type this (not shown in this widget); but
2) In slightly stale MT PASA DUID Availability data (published at 18:00 on Saturday 16th September) the unit had been nominating a short 3-day outage for Wednesday 20th, Thursday 21st and Friday 22nd this week (because of the short vertical stripe we conclude this is a shorter-notice outage)
… will see if this actually does start tomorrow, because …
3) In the most recent update of this data (i.e. the top row) we now see an outage scheduled for 2nd, 3rd and 4th October
… suggesting this short-notice outage might have been deferred for 2 weeks for unknown reasons.
PS1 from the Australian, on Tuesday afternoon
On Tuesday afternoon, Colin Packham wrote in the Australian ‘Energy fears tempered as Kogan Creek reassures AEMO’. With the BOM having declared today that El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are underway, this will be some extra welcome news.