Part 2 – What’s running in Victoria today (apart from strong rooftop PV)?
A second article today on this challenging day for the Victorian grid, looking at which supply sources are running.
Summer 2023-24 in the NEM
A collection of articles pertaining to summer 2023-24 in the NEM – including;
1. Forecasts and concerns ahead of time
2. What unfolded in real time through the summer
3 . More considered articles looking backwards on the summer period.
Demand in Victoria drops to a new lowest point on Sunday 31st December 2023, and AEMO flags possible intervention (Part 1?)
First article today, recording a new ‘lowest ever’ point for demand in Victoria (Sun 31st Dec 2023), and possible intervention from AEMO has it looks to drop further, leading to possible grid instability.
Looking back at the high demand levels seen in the past two days in Queensland
Taking a quick look back at two days of extreme levels of demand in Queensland during the ‘sleepy period’ between Xmas and New Year.
Queensland electricity demand climbs higher still, on Friday 29th December 2023
Some quick initial notes about the second day of remarkably high demand in QLD during the normally ‘sleepy’ period between Xmas and New Year (Fri 29th Dec 2023).
AEMO forecasts that tomorrow’s demand in QLD (i.e. Fri 29th Dec 2023) will be higher than today
Second short article on Thursday evening 28th December 2023, looking forward to Friday evening 29th December 2023.
QLD ‘Market Demand’ climbs past 9,500MW on Thursday 28th December 2023
Noteworthy that in the sleepy period between Christmas and New Year the QLD region can exceed 9,500MW (fast approaching an all-time maximum) on the first day of a two-day state wide heatwave.
An initial exploration of QLD’s spike at 14:30 on Thursday 21st December 2023
An initial look at the ‘out of the blue’ price spike in QLD at 14:30 on Thursday 21st December 2023.
Very fast FCAS markets continue to grow
Six observations from a chart summarising how capacity, availability and volumes enabled have changed over the early phase of the very fast FCAs markets, since commencement on October 9, 2023.
Barron Gorge Hydro Station damaged and offline after flooding from Cyclone Japser in North Queensland
Flooding from Cyclone Jasper has damaged part of the Barron Gorge Hydro Power Station in North Queensland, forcing its units offline until further assessment and repairs.
AEMO forecast for LOR2 in NSW on Tuesday 19th December 2023
A short initial note about AEMO’s currently forecast LOR2 for NSW next Tuesday 19th December 2023.
Belated notice from the AEMO about RERT contracted for yesterday (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
It’s Friday morning and AEMO has just published a Market Notice to alert the market that RERT was contracted for yesterday evening in NSW (Thu 14th Dec 2023).
Wind production ramps down in NSW, coincident with Increased Demand (and then Actual LOR2)
One factor contributing to the tight supply-demand balance is the decline in wind production (and capability) inverse to the rise in ‘Market Demand’.
Actual LOR2 in NSW from 17:30 on Thursday 14th December 2023
‘Market Demand’ has ramped back up, leading to an ‘Actual LOR2’ low reserve condition in NSW on Thu 14th Dec 2023
NSW ‘Market Demand’ climbs past 13,000MW – and IRPM drops – but prices stay moderate
NSW ‘Market Demand’ exceeds 13,000MW for the first time today (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
NSW ‘Market Demand’ squeezes 12,500MW as price passes $500/MWh
Getting closer to the time of forecast peak in demand, the forecast LOR2 is revised downwards.
RERT negotiations underway in NSW … at the same time as the NSW spot price is negative and forecast spikes have disappeared
A strange coincidence with the AEMO ‘intending to commence’ negotiations about Reserve Trader for NSW – for this afternoon/evening.
RERT negotiations commenced in NSW by AEMO on Thursday 14th December 2023
A short post to note that the AEMO have published a market notice stating an intention to commence RERT negotiations in NSW.
NSW ‘Market Demand’ over 11,000MW – and forecast evening demand warming back towards 13,000MW
A quick update into Thursday afternoon with forecast for this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023 in NSW
A quick look at forecasts for available wind generation in NSW for this evening 14th December 2023
A quick look at Semi-Scheduled Wind UIGF forecasts for this evening, where tight supply-demand is expected in NSW.
Demand forecast moderating for NSW for Thursday evening, 14th December 2023
A late morning update on forecast conditions for NSW this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023