Callide C4 generator stator is now at Callide Power Station
News of the arrival of another high cost replacement component (generator stator) at Callide C4 prompts me to have an updated look … with a new feature in ez2view.
Forecast Convergence
The worm has turned? Actual demand levels dropping lower than forecast (QLD 3rd Feb 2023) … maybe no record?
Today (Fri 3rd February 2023) is an illustration of the inherent difficulties in ‘successfully’ forecasting electricity demand!
Quick Friday morning look-ahead to Friday evening in QLD
A quick article for Friday (3rd Feb 2023) morning, looking ahead to this evening and what AEMO’s current forecasts are saying for this evening.
Forecasts pointing to record demand and other risks in QLD for Friday afternoon.. but caveats aplenty
Our fourth article looking forward to this Friday afternoon (3rd February 2023) in the Queensland region, where successive AEMO STPASA forecast data is showing considerable variability about what peak demand might be for the QLD region (it *might*, if predictions turn into reality, smash the prior all-time record). Dan Lee looks into how the demand forecast has been evolving and what to watch for this Friday afternoon.
Low wind on Friday 4th November 2022
Following a client request on Friday 4th November, here’s a quick look at the low wind conditions occurring on that day.
Quick initial notes about price spike at 17:30 on Friday 28th October 2022
A quick look at a brief price spike in NSW and QLD on Friday evening 28th October – which appears to be related to a Ravine -Yass(2) 330kV line outage.
AEMO briefly forecasts load shedding for NSW on Saturday morning 8th October (possibly data glitch?)
A quick initial look at (what appears to be) a strange aberration in the AEMO forecast data, with load shedding briefly forecast in NSW tomorrow morning.
*Was* solar production disappointingly low through (parts of) Q2 2022 … and, if so, why?
It’s taken longer than expected – but today I’ve posted this article that goes some way to answering the question ‘to what extent was solar production disappointing through periods of Q2 2022?’
Analytical Challenge – remembering to consider that *Other* Dimension of Time
In this article we explain a different (and sometimes quite powerful) way of reviewing some performance metrics in relation to the passage of another dimension of time.
A deeper (but still incomplete) look into the Overnight volatility in South Australia (i.e. part 2)
A follow-on second look at the volatility experienced in South Australia around midnight beginning Thursday 8th September 2022.
AEMO continue to watch for forecast LOR3 … e.g. MN99072 in preliminary forecast for Thu 30th June in SA
With Market Suspension possibly being lifted tomorrow morning, the flagging of forecast LOR3 in *very preliminary* ST PASA run for Thursday 30th June was of interest.
Increased visibility of LOR3 forecasts
An update on our thinking about LOR forecasts, under these ‘far from normal’ current market conditions.
What does the future hold for Wind and Solar in the NEM – seen via GenInsights21?
Following from the release of GenInsights21, in this article we look at some of what that analytical publication can help us understand, in terms of how the changing market is impacting on the role that renewables will increasingly play in the NEM in the years to come.
Another ‘mystery DUID’ puzzle (from Forecast Convergence in GenInsights21)
A second ‘mystery DUID’ puzzle … perhaps more complex than the first … from GenInsights21, for those who like to be challenged in ways like these.
What does ‘Forecast Convergence’ for MT PASA DUID Availability help us understand, about the ESB’s Final Advice?
Following from the ESB’s Final Advice, and inspired by the one year anniversary of publications the MT PASA DUID Availability data sets by AEMO (thanks to the ERM-sponsored rule change) we take a quick look about both initiatives might mean for each other. More to come in GenInsights21, time permitting.
Exploring the price spike in NSW on Wednesday morning 14th July
Returning to the price spike in NSW on Wednesday morning (to $15,100/MWh for 3 dispatch intervals) to explore some of the reasons why it happened – and why it happened unexpectedly.
Is the predictability of day-ahead demand improving?
Day-ahead demand forecasts will be integral to any future ‘Ahead Market’. We take a look at the current state and accuracy trend of demand forecasts made 24 hours ahead as part of the broader piece of work to feed into GenInsights21.
Three potential tripwires looming in October 2021, for those who are not wary
A short article, flagging three potential tripwires we’d like to ensure NEM participants and other stakeholders are aware of in the lead-up to two significant market changes from October 2021.
Out of the blue, an LOR2
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might have been expected, but it certainly wasn’t incident-free. A very…
What happened yesterday (Fri 20th Dec 2019) in the Victorian Region? A first look…
A first look back at yesterday (Friday 20th December 2019) in the Victorian region – where we saw extreme temperatures, high demand across VIC and SA and (perhaps because of high temperatures) a large discrepancy open up between forecast Wind Availability and actual. This would have contributed to the surprise LOR2 announcement and commencement of RERT negotiations.