A first look at ‘Market Demand’ in South Australia on Saturday 6th January 2024

There’s been a bit written about ‘the rooftop PV juggernaut’ in the media and on social media in the past week or so.

This was , at least in part, because I used the term in Part 2 of a review of what happened on Sunday 31st December 2023 … and so referenced by Angela Macdonald-Smith in the AFR on 2nd January and then on 3rd January 2024.

One eagle eyed reader this weekend (i.e. a week later) pointed out the following that happened in South Australia yesterday (Saturday 6th January 2024) so I’ve briefly recorded here – using a snapshot from ‘the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view, time-travelled back to 19:00 (NEM time) on Saturday evening:


Per the comments added:

1)  AEMO P30 predispatch forecasts for ‘Market Demand’ in South Australia consistently predicted that the level of demand would remain relatively strong through the afternoon:

(a)  However we see what actually happened is that from 12:30 on the day, the level of demand dropped rapidly through to 16:30, before recovering to 19:00

(b)  I’ve not checked, but presume this was because forecast cloud cover (which would have suppressed rooftop PV and so supported higher level of Grid Demand) did not eventuate.

… perhaps more learned readers can advise on this one?

2)  We also see that, from 16:30 through until 19:00 the level of ‘Market Demand’  grew quite quickly

… again, I have not checked, but perhaps the forecasted cloud cover arrived a little later in the afternoon than forecast?


No time to check anything else …

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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