Part 3 … Victorian demand holding up at higher levels than successive AEMO forecasts

Following Part 1 and Part 2 I’ve been watching to see any Market Notice relating to possible ‘curtailment of rooftop PV’ (or other interventions that the AEMO might take to deliver more demand on the Victorian Grid) …  but have not (yet?) see anything.

It’s curious that successive AEMO P30 predispatch forecasts continue to predict a low-point for ‘Market Demand’ that’s ~350MW lower than where we now are … but actual levels of ‘Market Demand’ seem to be resisting those forecasts from the AEMO.  Here’s a view of two different ‘Forecast Convergence’ widgets in ez2view at the 13:05 dispatch interval today:


Whilst the P30 forecasts (on the left) are showing AEMO is expecting demand might be considerably lower than it is, the P5 predispatch forecasts (on the right) are showing AEMO expects demand to rise.  Sounds like some conflict in the models … and a reminder that any model is just a model – it’s not reality’?!

Something to dig into later, time permitting …

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

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