The worm has turned? Actual demand levels dropping lower than forecast (QLD 3rd Feb 2023) … maybe no record?

The clouds and rain that are causing the unforecast drop in aggregate solar capability at Large Solar farms across QLD, and presumably with rooftop PV as well (though I have not checked), appear to be having a beneficial effect as well on the supply-demand balance.

Here’s another snapshot from the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget – but this time:

1)  Tabular, not Chart form

2)  Looking at Market Demand (not Solar UIGF); and

3)  Looking out over a longer time range (i.e. P30 being half-hourly, whereas the solar chart was just P5 being the next 55 minutes)

Here it is (remember to click on image to open larger view):


Per the annotations (and remembering to of ‘looking up a vertical’ to review that other dimension of time) we see:

1)  Up until 13:30 today we see the actual Market Demand outcomes were typically ahead of (i.e. above) escalating forecasts;

2)  But that flipped from 14:30, perhaps due to storm development, and we see that actual levels of Market Demand came in lower than forecast.

3)  For the single half hour period (i.e. the 5 minutes ending 14:00) the AEMO’s immediately preceding forecasts were on the money.

Illustrates the challenges of being in the AEMO Operations Room, and particularly the short-term forecasters!

As a result of which, the forecast new ‘all time maximum’ (which would beat the prior record up at 10,119MW back on 8th March 2022) appears to have evaporated…

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.