Forecast evening demand for QLD falling away for Thu 27th Jan 2024

We’ve ticked into the 16:05 dispatch interval, so worth another update on that 3-widget x ‘Forecast Convergence’ window from ez2view here:

Note that the P30 predispatch forecast for 16:00 has not yet arrived … it’s on a different time lag to the dispatch data.  Even without that data, we see that (by ‘looking up those verticals’):

1)  Forecast high ‘Market Demand’ for QLD this evening has fallen away somewhat; and

2)  Forecast pricing volatility for QLD this evening has also been subsiding as well (though still some action seen in the forecast shown

3)  Forecast LOR2 was removed for this evening (under MN113865 at 15:50), but a forecast LOR1 is still in place:

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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 27/01/2024 15:50:28

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Notice ID : 113865
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 27/01/2024
External Reference : PDPASA – Cancellation of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 27/01/2024

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

The Forecast LOR2 condition in the QLD region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 113853 is cancelled at 1530 hrs 27/01/2024.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
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4)  We also see a forecast LOR2 has emerged for Tuesday 30th January 2024.