Demand forecast moderating for NSW for Thursday evening, 14th December 2023
A late morning update on forecast conditions for NSW this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023
Forecast Convergence
A collation of articles tagged with ‘Forecast Convergence’ – which is a way of looking at that other dimension of time.
These might be:
1) Articles using the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget within our ez2view software;
2) Or it might be other representations of the same concept, such as in our GenInsights Quarterly Updates report.
Over four hours of volatility in the SA region on Friday evening 11th August 2023
Some quick notes about volatility in SA on Friday evening 11th August 2023.
Price volatility in SA on August 1, 2023
Light winds and a constrained interconnector contributed to elevated prices on 1 August 2023.
Four coal unit outages in the past 24 hours
It does not happen often, so when receiving 4 different ‘coal unit off’ alerts within 24 hours, we thought we would take a look …
Reader question about current (planned) outage at Millmerran unit 2
Answering a reader question (about the current outage at Millmerran unit 2) with some pictures in an article on WattClarity.
Currently forecast LOR2 for South Australia for Wednesday 10th May 2023
A first look at a forecast for tight supply-demand conditions for South Australia on Wednesday 10th May 2023.
A (very slight) delay to closure of Liddell unit 4 … but LD01 and LD02 slightly earlier
Latest data from AEMO (from Fri 14th April) suggests Liddell unit 4 might close a couple days later than when we’d looked in February.
Callide C4 generator stator is now at Callide Power Station
News of the arrival of another high cost replacement component (generator stator) at Callide C4 prompts me to have an updated look … with a new feature in ez2view.
The worm has turned? Actual demand levels dropping lower than forecast (QLD 3rd Feb 2023) … maybe no record?
Today (Fri 3rd February 2023) is an illustration of the inherent difficulties in ‘successfully’ forecasting electricity demand!
Quick Friday morning look-ahead to Friday evening in QLD
A quick article for Friday (3rd Feb 2023) morning, looking ahead to this evening and what AEMO’s current forecasts are saying for this evening.
Forecasts pointing to record demand and other risks in QLD for Friday afternoon.. but caveats aplenty
Our fourth article looking forward to this Friday afternoon (3rd February 2023) in the Queensland region, where successive AEMO STPASA forecast data is showing considerable variability about what peak demand might be for the QLD region (it *might*, if predictions turn into reality, smash the prior all-time record). Dan Lee looks into how the demand forecast has been evolving and what to watch for this Friday afternoon.
Low wind on Friday 4th November 2022
Following a client request on Friday 4th November, here’s a quick look at the low wind conditions occurring on that day.
Quick initial notes about price spike at 17:30 on Friday 28th October 2022
A quick look at a brief price spike in NSW and QLD on Friday evening 28th October – which appears to be related to a Ravine -Yass(2) 330kV line outage.
AEMO briefly forecasts load shedding for NSW on Saturday morning 8th October (possibly data glitch?)
A quick initial look at (what appears to be) a strange aberration in the AEMO forecast data, with load shedding briefly forecast in NSW tomorrow morning.
*Was* solar production disappointingly low through (parts of) Q2 2022 … and, if so, why?
It’s taken longer than expected – but today I’ve posted this article that goes some way to answering the question ‘to what extent was solar production disappointing through periods of Q2 2022?’
Analytical Challenge – remembering to consider that *Other* Dimension of Time
In this article we explain a different (and sometimes quite powerful) way of reviewing some performance metrics in relation to the passage of another dimension of time.
A deeper (but still incomplete) look into the Overnight volatility in South Australia (i.e. part 2)
A follow-on second look at the volatility experienced in South Australia around midnight beginning Thursday 8th September 2022.
AEMO continue to watch for forecast LOR3 … e.g. MN99072 in preliminary forecast for Thu 30th June in SA
With Market Suspension possibly being lifted tomorrow morning, the flagging of forecast LOR3 in *very preliminary* ST PASA run for Thursday 30th June was of interest.
Increased visibility of LOR3 forecasts
An update on our thinking about LOR forecasts, under these ‘far from normal’ current market conditions.
What does the future hold for Wind and Solar in the NEM – seen via GenInsights21?
Following from the release of GenInsights21, in this article we look at some of what that analytical publication can help us understand, in terms of how the changing market is impacting on the role that renewables will increasingly play in the NEM in the years to come.