End of the road looming – for Liddell, and also AGL’s Torrens B … and another day delay for Callide C3!
More changes to retirement schedules in the market prompt me to power up the ‘MT PASA DUID Availability’ widget in ez2view once again…
Long-Term Market trends and forecasts
Discussion about electricity prices – following the Callide C4 Catastrophe
Discussion in a number of different places (including an AFR article today) prompted me to pull some data together of how (spot and futures) prices have trended through 2021, and how they changed with the Callide C4 problems.
Ten Years of Performance History for Callide C4, from the GSD2020
In order to assist discussions on social media about what’s been happening with Callide C4 over the past 10 years, using the GSD2020 I’ve published some actual detailed performance metrics.
A new all-time maximum for coincident wind production across the NEM late on Tuesday 25th May
Last night, in addition to the dramas unfolding in the QLD region, we set a new record for coincident NEM-wide wind production – eclipsing the prior record from exactly 6 weeks ago.
Observations of differences in system frequency in the Mainland NEM (comparing 2019 to 2021)
One of the many data sets being crunched as part of our analytical efforts underpinning the development of ‘GenInsights21’ is system frequency. In this short article today, we share some initial observations on how it has been changing.
$15,000/MWh in South Australia on Friday 12th March 2021 … part 3 (quick thought to the future)
A shorter article – thinking more about the future, prompted by one of the factors that contributed to the price volatility seen in South Australia on Friday 12th March 2021
Will the traditional ‘Peak’ contract be another casualty of this Energy Transition?
Prompted by several different conversations offline in early 2021, I’ve taken a quick look at what have been traded volumes (on ASX) of the traditional ‘PEAK’ hedge contract for the NSW, QLD, VIC and SA regions. What does this tell us about a market view of the energy transition?
Report ‘Fast Erosion of Coal Plant Profits’ prompts questions
A report released this week by Green Energy Markets and the IEEFA exploring the prospect of accelerated coal closures, has itself caused some ripples…
The accelerating rise of Negative Prices in the NEM
A longer-term trend of the incidence of negative prices across each region of the NEM … and, most interestingly, the pattern by time of day.
Prior to the wider release of the GSD2020 … here’s a 10-year trend of bidding behaviour
A chart we threw together quickly at Beer O’Clock today (from the imminent release of the GSD2020) was worth sharing more broadly on WattClarity today…
Average spot prices through 2020 down at levels not seen for many years
Several conversations this week prompted me to update the long-term view of how spot prices have trended over time (in particular because average prices in 2020 were quite different than recent years).
What’s up with the fleet of 16 x coal-fired units in NSW?
Following a week where several days saw price volatility in NSW (with this being so extreme that Reserve Trader was triggered on Thursday 17th December) we’ve taken a look at the comparative performance of coal units across the NEM (and particularly in NSW) compared to prior years.
What’s “Primary Frequency Response” and why does it matter anyway?
Paul McArdle recently drew my attention to a short Twitter thread started by David Osmond on the arcane topic of NEM system frequency behaviour: At Paul’s invitation I’ve dived further into this issue to fill in some background, provide…
With increasing diversity, the low point of instantaneous aggregate Wind Generation across the NEM is nudging away from 0MW
Patricia Boyce’ challenging question coincided with the low point of cyclic wind output across the NEM this afternoon, and prompted some thinking…
AER releases proposed rule change for Semi-Scheduled generators and dispatch instructions
Following the consultation process conducted by the AER (stemming from their Issues Paper 3 months ago) the AER has today submitted a rule change request to the AEMC relating to Semi-Scheduled generation.
The (slow) decline of coal
Questions from several readers prompted this quick look at the long-term trend of coal generation.
Revenues for Wind Farms (and Solar Farms) in the NEM take a hit
A question over the weekend prompts this article, which follows from discussions to a Vestas-organised audience about revenue patterns and trends for Wind Farms in the NEM.
Extrapolating from the trend of ‘Aggregated Raw Off-Target’ results, to yield some clues to what the future might hold … and one challenge for NEM 2.0
Following on from Friday’s article (which considered the AER Issues Paper) this article delves into more detail of those extremes of ‘Aggregate Raw Off-Target’ across all Semi-Scheduled units that have been recorded over the past 10 years. There’s a clear clustering of cases in 2019 – what does it mean?
Striving to understand the underlying challenges with Semi-Scheduled generators (re AER Issues Paper)
Prompted by the recent AER Issues Paper (submissions on that due today – Friday 24th July) but also aware that I’ve not yet published some broader thoughts in response to the ESB’s requests for input into their Discussion Paper on the Two Sided Market concept, I’ve posted some further thoughts. These have been informed by a longitudinal analysis of Aggregate ‘Raw Off-target’ values across all Semi-Scheduled plant.
It’s good news that time-weighted average prices for Q2 2020 are down on prior years – right?
Spurred by a number of concurrent requests I’ve returned to the pattern of prior analysis of Q2 prices (completed in 2016, 2017 and 2018) to look at what’s changed for Q2 2020 that’s just ended. Some stakeholders clearly taken by surprise. Analysis includes the SWIS in Western Australia