We’ve recently ticked over into Spring 2022 in the NEM and so I thought it would be useful to take stock of how aggregate production levels across wind farms spread across the NEM trended on a monthly basis up to and including August 2022:
As highlighted in this image, the month of August saw both extremes of outcome:
1) On 4th August 2022 we saw a new record maximum reached for instantaneous production from wind:
(a) Up at 7,305MW;
(b) A contribution of Grid Demand being closer to 30% than 25%
(c) At 20:50 on that Thursday evening.
2) On Friday 26th August 2022 we saw the instantaneous production from wind drop to the lowest level in eleven months:
(a) Just 204MW;
(b) Just 0.98% if Grid Demand;
(c) just 2.04% instantaneous Capacity Factor across the total installed capacity base;
(d) Which appeared to be because of low wind conditions across almost all of the NEM (excepting far north Queensland).
In the chart above the other thing that jumps out at me straight away is:
3) That May, June, July and August 2022 showed stronger levels of production:
(a) New maximum points ratcheted up in May 2022, in July 2022 and several times in August 2022.
(b) Average levels up in June, July and August 2022 … above 30% in each of those months (but lower in May 2022);
(c) However monthly minimums were not really much different from months that came beforehand.
4) This followed the poorer months beforehand:
(a) Maximum levels during February, March and April 2022 being considerably lower than seen in the preceding months
(b) Average levels for March, April (capacity factor only 25.5%) and May (27%) being lower than most other months.
That’s all, for now…