Now making it 5 out of the past 6 years, we return to the analysis of electricity (spot and futures) pricing patterns for Q2 periods across the NEM regions … and also in Western Australia. We see a number of ways in which Q2 2021 was ‘anything but boring’!
High Contingency FCAS prices (Raise 6 second) in response to what’s happened at Callide Power Station drove the Cumulative Price to (6 times) the Cumulative Price Threshold. Administered Pricing began Saturday evening for QLD.
The AEMO has released its 22-page Preliminary Report into the Callide C4 Catastrophe and the subsequent events.
A deeper look at the frequency data (our own, and also from some others) reveals a number of other interesting things about what happened on Tuesday 25th May 2021 in Queensland.
Following yesterday’s incidents (plural!) we see prices forecast to be high this evening in QLD as well.
Looks set to be a very tight supply/demand balance this evening in Queensland. Here’s hoping everything goes right for the AEMO Control Room!
A quick snapshot from NEMwatch at 14:20 today highlighting the loss of approximately 2000MW of demand this afternoon – dropping the level of Scheduled Demand down to 3,775MW: The AEMO Market Notice highlighted says: ——————————————————————- MARKET NOTICE ——————————————————————- From : …
Spot prices spiked across mainland regions this evening – firstly at 17:55 (above $1,000/MWh). and then at 18:00 (up towards $15,000/MWh). Here’s a first look.
In between other jobs today, we’ve taken a look at why the price spiked yesterday (Tue 20th April) in QLD … at an earlier time than we had become accustomed to seeing it occur in recent months.
Reminded by today’s spikes, here’s a quick look at a similar price spike that occurred yesterday (14:35 on Friday 9th April 2021 in the QLD region).
Three price spikes in the QLD region on Saturday 10th April 2021 help to remind us that how increasingly dependent we are on various machinations of the weather (including, on these occasions, cloud cover and solar output).
It’s taken a while to find the time – but today I’m posting this next analytical piece (Part 3) that seeks to understand what happened on Sunday 24th January 2021 with the NEM-wide SCADA Failure, which contributed to the price spike that occurred in QLD by virtue of what it did to the ‘Q>>NIL_CLWU_RGLC’ constraint equation.
Two months ago prices spiked in QLD on a Sunday afternoon when AEMO lost SCADA data feed. One month ago AEMO published a preliminary report. In the background we have been taking a look…
In what’s become a fairly regular occurrence the past couple months, the price spiked in QLD for a single dispatch interval as the sun was setting.
Prompted by an SMS alert this evening, we take a look at the tight supply/demand balance currently forecast for the QLD region on Monday afternoon next week (30th Nov 2020).
In part 5 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we take a detailed look at the constraint set ‘Q-BCNE_821’ invoked to deal with the transmission outage between H11 Nebo (in ‘North’ zone) and H10 Bouldercombe (in ‘Central-West’ zone)
In part 4 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we take a quick look at what happened at most of the QLD generators through this 10:00 trading period.
In part 3 of this expanding Case Study of the unexpected price spike on Tuesday 13th Oct, linked to a large & sudden drop in output across 10 solar farms, we dig deeper to explore… including wondering whether it would have been expected in advance.
Based on some preliminary analysis of the Powerlink’s ‘Qdata’ set (available in ez2view) we present our current hypothesis as to the sequence of the events yesterday in the QLD region, where 600MW of solar generation was lost, causing the price to spike to MPC.
Alerted to a price spike at 09:45 this morning in the QLD region, we discovered some reduction in load (spot-exposed Demand Response probably) and also a large collective trip in Solar Farm output (reasons unclear).