Hold onto your hats … QLD’s supply demand balance forecast to be very tight in the hours ahead … Tue 25th May 2021 (Part 2)

At some point will be able to prepare a more detailed chronology of what’s gone on this afternoon in the QLD region (following the loss of supply at the Callide B and C stations, and subsequent trip of transmission at Calvale substation) – but for now here’s a very short ‘Part 2’ article noting that it looks likely to be very tight from a supply/demand balance perspective this evening in QLD.

Here’s a (rarer) snapshot from our deSide® software (for large energy users providing Demand Response) taken for the 16:10 dispatch interval:


At 15:21 the AEMO announced forecast LOR2-level Lack of Reserve Condition for the QLD region this evening from 17:30 to 19:00:


Notice ID            85952
Notice Type ID        LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Notice Type Description    MARKET
Issue Date            Tuesday, 25 May 2021
External Reference        PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the Qld Region on 25/05/2021


AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the Qld region for the following period:

From 1730 hrs to 1900 hrs 25/05/2021.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 443 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 367 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations


At 16:13, the AEMO announced intention to commence RERT Negotiations:

Notice ID                85976
Notice Type ID            MARKET INTERVENTION
Notice Type Description        MARKET
Issue Date                Tuesday, 25 May 2021
Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) Intention to negotiate for additional reserve – QLD1 Region- 25/05/2021

Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice no. 85952.
AEMO intends to commence negotiations with RERT Panel members for the provision of additional reserve by issuing requests for tender for the following period of time;
17:30 to 20:00 hrs 25/05/2021
If reserve is required, the period of activation or dispatch will be within this period but may not be for the entire period.
AEMO will issue a further advice if reserve is contracted.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

No wonder!

… and hold onto your hats!

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

3 Comments on "Hold onto your hats … QLD’s supply demand balance forecast to be very tight in the hours ahead … Tue 25th May 2021 (Part 2)"

  1. Hi Paul,

    Your link to Part 1 of the explainer about todays outage is resulting in a 404. Thought others might be looking for your insight as well.


    WattClarity is my go to for all the energy market updates 🙂


  2. Why did the H24 Calvale 275Kv Transmission lines trip 22minutes after the fire event?
    Significant power system event – 25/05/2021
    Significant power system event – 25/05/2021

    At 1406 hrs 25/05/2021 a significant power system event occurred.
    Description of event – Multiple transmission lines tripped
    Transmission element(s) tripped – All 275kV transmission lines out of H24 Calvale
    Region Qld
    Updates will be provided as additional information becomes available.

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