Hold onto your hats … QLD’s supply demand balance forecast to be very tight in the hours ahead … Tue 25th May 2021 (Part 2)

At some point will be able to prepare a more detailed chronology of what’s gone on this afternoon in the QLD region (following the loss of supply at the Callide B and C stations, and subsequent trip of transmission at Calvale substation) – but for now here’s a very short ‘Part 2’ article noting that it looks likely to be very tight from a supply/demand balance perspective this evening in QLD.

Here’s a (rarer) snapshot from our deSide® software (for large energy users providing Demand Response) taken for the 16:10 dispatch interval:

At 15:21 the AEMO announced forecast LOR2-level Lack of Reserve Condition for the QLD region this evening from 17:30 to 19:00:

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Notice ID            85952
Notice Type ID        LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Notice Type Description    MARKET
Issue Date            Tuesday, 25 May 2021
External Reference        PDPASA – Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the Qld Region on 25/05/2021
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AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the Qld region for the following period:

From 1730 hrs to 1900 hrs 25/05/2021.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 443 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 367 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

AEMO has not yet estimated the latest time at which it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

At 16:13, the AEMO announced intention to commence RERT Negotiations:

________________________________________________________________________________________________
Notice ID                85976
Notice Type ID            MARKET INTERVENTION
Notice Type Description        MARKET
Issue Date                Tuesday, 25 May 2021
External Reference        INTENTION TO COMMENCE RERT CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS
________________________________________________________________________________________________
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.
Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) Intention to negotiate for additional reserve – QLD1 Region- 25/05/2021

Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice no. 85952.
AEMO intends to commence negotiations with RERT Panel members for the provision of additional reserve by issuing requests for tender for the following period of time;
17:30 to 20:00 hrs 25/05/2021
If reserve is required, the period of activation or dispatch will be within this period but may not be for the entire period.
AEMO will issue a further advice if reserve is contracted.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

No wonder!

… and hold onto your hats!