QLD volatility Sunday evening explodes past the Cumulative Price Threshold (CPT)

As follow-on from Friday evening’s late article to note that:

1)  There was a burst of volatility on Saturday evening in QLD and NSW … though ‘only’ just above $1,000/MWh; but

2)  Sunday evening has seen a renewed burst at a higher level, as we see here in this run of SMS alerts (so far this evening):

In particular, those last five prices (each around $10,000/MWh or above) have collectively added $50,000 to the Cumulative Price for the QLD region.… but the situation continues to grow worse…

We see in this snapshot from NEMwatch at the 17:55 dispatch interval (i.e. one after the above) that the Cumulative Price has risen to $1,272,640 … so within $100,000 of the Cumulative Price Threshold, and when Administered Pricing would begin:

Returning to the live updating Dashboard showing trended Cumulative Price over the past 14-days, we see it’s rapidly closing on the Cumulative Price Threshold:

Will watch this unfold…

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PS1 at 17:42 – Actual LOR2 in the QLD region

As a first PS this evening, note that AEMO declares an ‘Actual LOR2‘ in the QLD region this evening with this Market Notice:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 12/06/2022 17:54:09

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Notice ID : 96981
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 12/06/2022
External Reference : Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the QLD region – 12/06/2022

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Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 1 (LOR1) in the QLD region – 12/06/2022

An Actual LOR1 condition has been declared under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region from 1730 hrs.

The Actual LOR1 condition is forecast to exist until 1800 hrs.

The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 930 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 925 MW.

Manager NEM Real Time Operations

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END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-‘

Once again (all too often recently) … hold onto your hats!

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PS2 at 18:10 – Cumulative Price above $1,300,000

Here’s a later snapshot from NEMwatch at the 18:10 dispatch interval:

With respect to the numbering:

1)  We see the showing the Cumulative Price climbed above $1,300,000;

2)  We see the ‘Actual LOR2’ Market Notice copied out above (and also some warnings for various regions in the following days); and

3)  NEMwatch calculates a 14% Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin for the QLD-only ‘Economic Island’ at this point.

(a)  At this point there’s just over 1,100MW of spare capacity in the QLD region;

(b)  With net ‘Market Demand’ (i.e. net of imports from NSW) of 7,703MW being supplied by most of the 8,805MW Available Generation

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PS3 at 18:50 – Cumulative Price above Cumulative Price Threshold

Here’s a later snapshot from NEMwatch at the 18:50 dispatch interval:

At this point, the Cumulative Price is shown to be $1,361,004 … so beyond the Cumulative Price Threshold … so Administered Pricing should commence shortly.

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PS4 at 18:00 – Administered Pricing Commences

Here’s the subsequent dispatch interval (i.e. 18:55) via NEMwatch:

Also note this AEMO Market Notice:

‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-

From :              AEMO
To   :              NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :     12/06/2022     18:45:17

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Notice ID               :         96986
Notice Type ID          :         ADMINISTERED PRICE CAP
Notice Type Description :         Administered price periods declared.
Issue Date              :         12/06/2022
External Reference      :         [EventId:145] AP STARTED for ENERGY in QLD1 at 12 June 2022 18:45

——————————————————————-

Reason :

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Issued by Australian Energy Market Operator Ltd at 1845 hrs on 12 June 2022

ADMINISTERED PRICE PERIOD DECLARED in QLD1 region.

AEMO has determined that the rolling sum of the uncapped spot prices for the QLD1 region over the previous 2016 trading intervals has exceeded the cumulative price threshold (CPT) of $1,359,100.00.

In accordance with Clause 3.14.2(b) of the National Electricity Rules, AEMO has determined that an administered price period will commence at the trading interval starting 1855 hrs on 12 June 2022 and will continue through to the end of that trading day.

An administered price cap (APC) of 300 $/MWh will apply to all trading intervals during this administered price period. This APC will apply to spot prices and to all market ancillary service prices in the QLD1 region.

An administered floor price (AFP) of -300 $/MWh will apply to spot prices.

AEMO will continue to monitor the rolling sum of the uncapped spot prices and issue further Market Notices as required.

This is an AEMO autogenerated Market Notice.

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END OF REPORT
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PS5 ???

Not sure there will be anything else that needs posting immediately this evening…