With the CPT having been reached and AP in place in QLD, the market has certainly not cooled down … with one example being shown in this snapshot from NEMwatch at 21:25:
With respect to the numbering on the snapshot:
1) The QLD dispatch price is capped at $300/MWh with the Cumulative Price (CP) well above the Cumulative Price Threshold (CPT);
2) We see a very slim 10% Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin (IRPM) in the QLD-only ‘Economic Island’:
(a) Spare capacity of 703 MW;
(b) Based on Available Generation of 7,642 MW and a net ‘Market Demand’ of 6,939 MW;
3) Related to this, at 20:50 AEMO has declared an ‘Actual LOR2’ for the second time this evening (noting the earlier one here) in this Market Notice:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 12/06/2022 20:50:32
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 96992
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 12/06/2022
External Reference : Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 12/06/2022
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
Actual Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD region – 12/06/2022
An Actual LOR2 condition has been declared under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region from 2030 hrs.
The Actual LOR2 condition is forecast to exist until 2130 hrs.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 487 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 403 MW.
AEMO is seeking an immediate market response.
An insufficient market response may require AEMO to implement an AEMO intervention event.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’
4) Shortly afterwards (at 21:02) the AEMO issued Directions to one of more participants as noted here
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 12/06/2022 21:02:18
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 96994
Notice Type ID : MARKET INTERVENTION
Notice Type Description : Reserve Contract / Direction / Instruction
Issue Date : 12/06/2022
External Reference : Direction – QLD region 12/06/2022
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.
Direction – QLD region 12/06/2022
In accordance with clause 4.8.9(a) of the National Electricity Rules, AEMO has issued a direction to a participant in the QLD region.
The direction was necessary to maintain the power system in a reliable operating state.
AEMO may issue or revoke additional directions in order to meet the current requirement, unless sufficient market response is provided. A further market notice will be issued when all directions related to this requirement have been cancelled.
The issue of the direction commences an AEMO intervention event. AEMO declares all trading intervals during the event to be intervention trading intervals, commencing from the interval ending 2100 hrs on 12/06/2022.
Intervention pricing does not apply to this AEMO intervention event
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
——————————————————————-
END OF REPORT
——————————————————————-’
5) Also, strange pricing occurrences in the other regions have followed the declaration of Administered Pricing in QLD.
———–
PS1 at 21:40 with IRPM down to 3% (~200MW spare only!)
Here’s the 21:40 dispatch interval, with only 205MW spare in QLD … a 3% IRPM … wafer thin!
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