P30 Predispatch forecasts after 5-minute settlement–what do they mean?
30-minute pre-dispatch provides critical forward price information to the NEM – but what exactly will it mean after five-minute settlement? Marcelle takes a look.
Headline Events
Some key events in the NEM that carried long-term implications
Potential Tripwire #1 = the ‘invisible’ 5-minute Trading Periods?!
In this article we discuss the 1st of 3 Potential Tripwires that wholesale market participants and others will encounter from October 2021 … with Tripwire #1 coming from the implementation of Five Minute Settlement.
Three potential tripwires looming in October 2021, for those who are not wary
A short article, flagging three potential tripwires we’d like to ensure NEM participants and other stakeholders are aware of in the lead-up to two significant market changes from October 2021.
Discussion about electricity prices – following the Callide C4 Catastrophe
Discussion in a number of different places (including an AFR article today) prompted me to pull some data together of how (spot and futures) prices have trended through 2021, and how they changed with the Callide C4 problems.
Administered Pricing reached for Raise 6 second (Contingency) FCAS in Queensland
High Contingency FCAS prices (Raise 6 second) in response to what’s happened at Callide Power Station drove the Cumulative Price to (6 times) the Cumulative Price Threshold. Administered Pricing began Saturday evening for QLD.
Spot market volatility report – Thursday 3rd June 2021 (as at 17:54)
Evening spot price volatility has become a regular thing – here’s some of it for Thursday 3rd June 2021
AEMO estimates it paid $11,612.33/MWh for Reserve Trader on Tuesday 25th May 2021 in QLD
A short note, following AEMO reporting estimated costs for RERT (Reserve Trader) on Tuesday 25th May 2021 in QLD.
Josh Stabler highlights possible issues with supply of replacement turbine for Callide C4
On LinkedIn this afternoon, Josh Stabler (of Energy Edge) identified another consideration for the repair process for the significantly damaged Callide C4 steam turbine.
Gas-fired generation up following the Callide C4 Catastrophe
A client sent in this ez2view image this afternoon pointing out another factor that’s been occurring in the absence of 4 x Callide units – markedly increased production from gas-fired generation.
Ten Years of Performance History for Callide C4, from the GSD2020
In order to assist discussions on social media about what’s been happening with Callide C4 over the past 10 years, using the GSD2020 I’ve published some actual detailed performance metrics.
AEMO releases Preliminary Report: Trip of multiple generators and lines in Queensland and associated under-frequency load shedding on 25 May 2021
The AEMO has released its 22-page Preliminary Report into the Callide C4 Catastrophe and the subsequent events.
Initial look at System Strength constraints (curtailing north QLD Solar and Wind) in Event 3 on Tuesday 25th May 2021
We’ve started exploring the constraint data from the QLD region for back on Tuesday 25th May 2021 (with the Callide C4 catastrophe) and here’s some initial information.
Some good information about what happened with Callide C4 inside the AFR today
A note of thanks to Mark Ludlow at the AFR for the compilation of some great initial information about what happened at Callide C4 unit just over a week ago (on Tue 25th May 2021).
Updated list of events on 25th May 2021 that we’ll be investigating – time permitting
For ease of future reference, here is the list of events that occurred on Tuesday 25th May 2021 … as we (currently) see them.
Price Volatility (now a regular evening event for QLD and NSW) on Tuesday 1st June kicked along by Darling Downs outage.
A number of things happened late today – with the trip of DDPS1 (only declare credible contingency earlier in the day) giving more impetus to spot price volatility in the QLD and NSW regions already facing tight supply/demand following the Callide catastrophe and LOR1 in NSW.
Delayed Return to Service for Callide B1, B2 and C3
First short article for Tuesday evening following report from CS Energy that the return to service
First pass review of bidding behaviour on Tuesday 25th May 2021 in Queensland, after Event 2
This evening I’ve taken a first pass look at how QLD generators bid on Tuesday 25th May 2021, in response to the tight supply/demand balance created by the Callide C4 outage and cascade of events.
Plenty of things went wrong in Queensland last Tuesday, but some very important things went right
Whilst there were many things that went wrong on Tuesday 25th May 2021 (last week), guest author Allan O’Neil highlights that there were at least 4 things that went right – contributing to a much less severe outcome than would otherwise have been the case.
Callide C Catastrophic Failure
Carl Daley from EnergyByte, provides more insight into the events of last Tuesday, which culminated in widespread blackouts throughout Queensland.
Prices Spike on Sunday 30th May with low NEM-wide IRPM (without 4 Callide units, and low Wind Production)
On Friday evening (28th May) and again this evening (Sun 30th May) my phone buzzed plenty of times – due to price volatility, and also alerting on low IRPM (enabled with Callide units offline, and low wind harvest at peak demand time).