Spot market volatility report – Thursday 3rd June 2021 (as at 17:54)


As I publish this report (at 17:54) there have been instances of extreme (i.e. >$1,000/MWh) prices in QLD and NSW this afternoon/evening as follows:

1)  1st spike in QLD at 15:40 (to $13,988.00/MWh) – a little earlier than normal, in part because of lower solar output (and higher gas generation, as noted earlier).

2)  2nd spike in QLD at 16:15 (to $13,988.00/MWh) – the next trading period

3)  3rd spike in QLD at 16:35 (to $13,988.00/MWh) – the next trading period.  Here’s how this was captured in the NEMwatch v10 snapshot at the time:

2021-06-03-at-16-35-NEMwatch-QLDspike

Note the tongue-in-cheek exclamation by Dave Smith about a ‘Gas Fired Recovery!’ in response to my earlier article about heavy use of gas-fired generation through the day, and see the solid block of red there.

4)  4th spike in QLD at 17:10 (to $13,988.00/MWh)

… so 4 trading periods in a row.  Note the pattern here (complete with negative prices in between)?

5)  1st spike in NSW at 17:25 (to $5,968.80/MWh)

6)  2nd spike in NSW at 17:30 (to $4,751.67/MWh)

7)  5th spike in QLD ($14,700/MWh) and 3rd for NSW at 17:40 ($4,990.84/MWh).  Here’s a look at this one in NEMwatch v10:

2021-06-03-at-17-40-NEMwatch-spikeQLDandNSW

Note the following:

(a)  Tight supply/demand in QLD (a 14% IRPM for the ‘Economic Island’) and a very tight supply/demand balance in NSW (a 5% IRPM with less than 500MW spare!)

(b)  Scheduled Demand  in NSW (at 11,662MW) up in the ‘yellow’ colour band – based on the historical range.

8)  4th for NSW at 17:45 ($14,381.81/MWh) and 1st for Victoria ($1,290.61/MWh).

 

————-

There was also a spike in QLD this morning (to $15,000/MWh at 07:30).

It’s been an unusual past 4 weeks!

————-

PS – note that the volatility continued into the evening, but I’m not going to update this article further…

About the Author

Paul McArdle
One of three founders of Global-Roam back in 2000, Paul has been CEO of the company since that time. As an author on WattClarity, Paul's focus has been to help make the electricity market more understandable.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.


*