RERT may be triggered this evening – Tuesday 5th July 2022?
This morning (Tue 5th july 2022) AEMO announces it may see the need to trigger Reserve Trader this evening.
This morning (Tue 5th july 2022) AEMO announces it may see the need to trigger Reserve Trader this evening.
A quick look at the NEM on Wednesday evening, with thoughts to the near future.
A quick snapshot for NEM-wide Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin down at 3% at 23:45 on Friday evening 17th June 2022.
An update on this morning’s forecasts from AEMO, published on WattClarity at ~12:00 Tuesday 14th June
A first look today at what’s forecast for load shedding this evening (some very large numbers for both QLD and NSW).
Second article this morning, highlighting the very tight supply-demand balance.
The IRPM has dropped again this evening, with drops in Available Generation outpacing drops in Demand.
As demand climbs into the evening the IRPM is dropping.
It’s 17:30 and the white knuckle ride through this evening begins…
In what is a rapidly evolving situation, we see here another update from the AEMO … extending forecast load shedding into NSW for tomorrow evening as well.
The outlook continues to get worse and worse… forecast load shedding extended to NSW this evening and into QLD tomorrow as well.
AEMO’s updated forecast for load shedding in QLD this evening is for an enormous amount (1,454MW)
First article on Monday 13th June 2022 with QLD under Administered Pricing – looking at not only QLD but also strange outcomes everywhere else…
Available Generation in QLD has been quite the see-saw following the imposition of Administered Pricing on Sunday evening, 12th June 2022. This is the 3rd occasion this evening we see ‘Actual LOR2’ warning.
Fifth article on Sunday 12th June takes a quick look at what’s on (and what’s not) in QLD this evening under AP with very tight margins.
A later article reviewing how Cumulative Price in Queensland has jumped upwards this evening (towards the CPT) as a result of a solid four hours above $1,000/MWh.
With respect to yesterday’s ‘Notification of Potential Gas Supply Shortfall Event’ and this evening’s tight supply-demand balance in the NEM, worth noting this AEMO tweet at 17:50 this evening: … which links to this short update on the AEMO website,…
There’s been some movement in AEMO’s forecast Lack of Reserve positions for tomorrow (Thu 2nd June 2022) but the outlook still seems to be tight…
Across the NEM, surplus Available Generation is less than 15% more than aggregate Market Demand … a low IRPM.
A quick look at the current forecast for tight supply-demand balance on Thursday evening 2nd June 2022