Yesterday evening we saw the Cumulative Price climb back above $1,000,000 … just over a week since the NEM was unsuspended after the Cumulative Price finally dropped below the CPT (it took a market suspension to make it happen). I’ve seen others also express concern that we appear to be in a ‘rinse and repeat’ cycle … especially given the cold and cloudy conditions that nullify much of QLD’s significant fleet of solar power production systems. For instance:
1) Josh Stabler noted this yesterday evening on LinkedIn … to which others added their concerns in comments.
2) Dylan McConnell led some discussion here on Twitter
3) Ben Kefford also started this thread on LinkedIn.
… out of which Angela Macdonald-Smith wrote about ‘Warning signs as QLD power climbs back towards cap’ yesterday evening.
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First news this morning came with a series of Market Notices issued by AEMO, including MN 99963 at 05:56 noting the possible use of Reserve Trader this evening as follows:
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 05/07/2022 05:56:45
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Notice ID : 99963
Notice Type ID : MARKET INTERVENTION
Notice Type Description : Reserve Contract / Direction / Instruction
Issue Date : 05/07/2022
External Reference : INTENTION TO IMPLEMENT an AEMO INTERVENTION EVENT WITH RERT
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.
AEMO Intervention Event, Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) – QLD1 Region – 05/07/2022
Refer to AEMO Electricity Market Notice no. 99962.
AEMO has entered into a reserve contract and may implement a AEMO Intervention Event by dispatching that reserve contract to maintain the power system in a Secure and Reliable operating state during the following period of time;
17:00 to 21:30 hrs 05/07/2022
If reserve is required, the period of activation or dispatch will be within this period, but may not be for all the entire period.
AEMO will issue a further advice if the reserve contract is dispatched/activated.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
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END OF REPORT
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This alert was followed by MN 99965 at 06:48 this morning about forecast LOR2 levels for QLD through the day, as follows:
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 05/07/2022 06:48:19
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Notice ID : 99965
Notice Type ID : RESERVE NOTICE
Notice Type Description : LRC/LOR1/LOR2/LOR3
Issue Date : 05/07/2022
External Reference : PDPASA – Update of the Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 05/07/2022
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The Forecast LOR2 condition in the QLD region advised in AEMO Electricity Market Notice No. 99941 has been updated at 0640 hrs to the following:
[[1.] From 1030 hrs 05/07/2022 to 1130 hrs 05/07/2022.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 434 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 351 MW.
[2.] From 1700 hrs 05/07/2022 to 2100 hrs 05/07/2022.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 493 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 78 MW.
AEMO is seeking a market response.
AEMO has estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an AEMO intervention event is 0900 hrs 05/07/2022.
Manager NEM Real Time Operations
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END OF REPORT
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… and prices are already on the rise, as we see in this snapshot from NEMwatch at 07;40 with the spot price above $5,000/MWh:
The Cumulative Price at this point is above $1,100,000 … so climbing closer towards the CPT.
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