[PS – a more recent update on AEMO’s forecasts was published Tuesday afternoon here]
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A short update late Tuesday morning to highlight what I can see of these forecast LOR3 (i.e. controlled load shedding) instances for today:
|
QLD Region |
NSW Region |
VIC Region |
SA Region |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Yesterday (Monday 13th June) there were several updates on the forecast for QLD … but nothing eventuated (as AEMO noted here). |
Yesterday (Monday 13th June) there were several updates on the forecast for NSW … but nothing eventuated (as AEMO noted here). |
Nothing was relevant for VIC yesterday |
Nothing was relevant for SA yesterday |
|
Today (Tuesday 14th June) we’ve seen Market Notice 97248 published at 11:21 as the most recent for QLD. This was an update on MN 97174. The key points are: ‘from 16:30 to 24:00’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 2113MW at 18:30’ That’s a long time range, and an enormous number … but remember that nothing eventuated in QLD yesterday when a large amount had been forecast late morning yesterday (though also keep in mind that there’s still a tangible risk).
|
Today (Tuesday 14th June) we’ve seen Market Notice 97256 published at 11:32 as the most recent for the NSW region. This was an update on MN 97198 at 05:19 this morning, which itself followed from MN 97173. The key points are: ‘from 17:00 to 24:00’ ‘maximum load (other than interruptible loads) forecast to be interrupted is 1604MW at 21:00’ That’s also a long time range, and an enormous number … but remember that nothing eventuated in QLD yesterday when a large amount had been forecast earlier (though also keep in mind that there’s still a tangible risk). |
No such warnings for VIC at this point. |
No such warnings for SA at this point. |
|
Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for QLD tomorrow (Wednesday 15th June) |
Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for NSW tomorrow (Wednesday 15th June) |
Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for VIC tomorrow (Wednesday 15th June) |
Have not (yet?) seen anything forecast for SA tomorrow (Wednesday 15th June) |
To give you some idea why there’s such a large amount of load shedding forecast as potentially possible, here’s a snapshot from ez2view currently in the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget showing Available Generation projection for the QLD region:
… and, for completeness, here is the same for the NSW region:
So watch this space, as it evolves through the day…
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