Actual LOR2, and a run of volatility in NSW and QLD … only 34 days till the closure of Liddell unit 4
Looks like we've (sort of) dodged the Reserve Trader bullet on Thursday evening 16th March 2023 ... but still poses plenty of questions.
tight supply-demand
RERT cost estimates released for 3 February 2023
Estimated RERT costs published, pushing past the market price cap for dispatched volumes.
A burst of heat and volatility in QLD on Tuesday 31st January 2023
A quick recap of some market volatility (and other developments) in QLD on Monday 31st January 2023
Long-range trend of Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin (IRPM) and focus on Q3 2022 – from GenInsights Quarterly
One of the metrics we introduced into GenInsights Quarterly Update for 2022 Q3 was a long-range review of IRPM (Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin). In this article we share...
NEM-wide IRPM drops below 15% on Monday 5th September 2022
A quick second article today, with IRPM down below 15% on a NEM-wide basis.
Substantially different than a year ago, the 2022 ESOO points to challenges ahead in the supply/demand balance
With the AEMO releasing the 2022 ESOO on Wednesday morning 31st August 2022 with the limited time I have available right now I've had a quick look, and...
RERT dispatched in QLD – at 17:00 on Tuesday 5th July 2022
RERT (Reserve Trader) dispatched in QLD.
RERT may be triggered this evening – Tuesday 5th July 2022?
This morning (Tue 5th july 2022) AEMO announces it may see the need to trigger Reserve Trader this evening.
(Somewhat artificially) low NEM-wide IRPM on Wednesday evening 22nd June … looking forward to possible easing of Suspension on Friday morning
A quick look at the NEM on Wednesday evening, with thoughts to the near future.
Wafer thin margin Friday evening, NEM-wide [caveat = based on generation bid available for NEMDE pricing/dispatch]
A quick snapshot for NEM-wide Instantaneous Reserve Plant Margin down at 3% at 23:45 on Friday evening 17th June 2022.
15:20 forecasts for LOR3 (load shedding) across the NEM for today, tomorrow (Wed 15th) and Thursday 16th June
An update on this morning's forecasts from AEMO, published on WattClarity at ~12:00 Tuesday 14th June
11am forecasts for LOR3 (load shedding) across the NEM for Tuesday 14th June 2022
A first look today at what's forecast for load shedding this evening (some very large numbers for both QLD and NSW).
TAS spot price at $15,100/MWh with near-record Market Demand … and NEM-wide IRPM hits a low of 4.33% Tuesday morning
Second article this morning, highlighting the very tight supply-demand balance.
IRPM on a NEM-wide basis drops down to 9% again, at 20:05
The IRPM has dropped again this evening, with drops in Available Generation outpacing drops in Demand.
IRPM drops to only 8% NEM-wide
As demand climbs into the evening the IRPM is dropping.
NEM-wide IRPM down to only 13%
It's 17:30 and the white knuckle ride through this evening begins...
Update on AEMO’s forecasts for load shedding – QLD and NSW, today and tomorrow
In what is a rapidly evolving situation, we see here another update from the AEMO ... extending forecast load shedding into NSW for tomorrow evening as well.
Forecast LOR3 (load shedding) now spans NSW for Monday evening, 13th June … and QLD tomorrow (morning/evening) as well
The outlook continues to get worse and worse... forecast load shedding extended to NSW this evening and into QLD tomorrow as well.
AEMO’s updated forecast for load shedding this evening is up to 1,454MW (i.e. about the size of Brisbane)
AEMO's updated forecast for load shedding in QLD this evening is for an enormous amount (1,454MW)
With Administered Pricing in QLD, overnight NEM activity enters the rabbit hole
First article on Monday 13th June 2022 with QLD under Administered Pricing - looking at not only QLD but also strange outcomes everywhere else...