The reasonable response is not to model the world as simpler than it is, but to confront its variability head-on: to treat stochastic inputs as stochastic, to plan for the distribution rather than its midpoint, and to build the margin of safety that resilience demands.
In this guest-authored article by Endgame Economics, Oliver Nunn examines growing 'noise' in NEM spot prices — how increasingly frequent oscillations appear to have a structural, intraday pattern, what may be driving it, and why it matters for market behaviour and battery investment outcomes.
This article by Endgame Analytics explains why average or median forecasts are becoming increasingly inadequate, using multi-year weather and supply stress testing to expose the true distribution of outcomes, risks, and reliability challenges in a high-renewables power system.
This analysis from Endgame Analytics highlights how solar revenues are increasingly concentrated in winter and shoulder periods as daytime prices collapse. Using historical data and forward modelling, it examines what the deepening duck curve means for solar returns, risk, and the need for seasonal storage.
Oliver Nunn from Endgame Economics argues that we must begin to think about the distribution of prices in the NEM as a function of weather.
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 3: "Defense against the dark arts"
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 2: "Operational dispatch modelling"
Oliver Nunn and his team at Endgame Economics have written this introductory three-part guide to market modelling in the NEM. This is Part 1: "Building the Arena"
Oliver Nunn of Endgame Analytics provides this summary of NSW price, demand and generation trends to provide context about what has happened in the region over the past several weeks.