Case Study (part 1) of low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
A brief article as a first Case Study looking at Mon 3rd and Tue 4th July 2023, in conjunction with the compilation of GenInsights Quarterly Updates for 2023 Q3.
Detailed Analysis
Demand Response as Market Participant: Square Peg in Round Hole?
A year ago we reviewed the market outcomes of wholesale demand response (WDR) in the NEM. It’s been 2 years now, providing a new milestone from which to review participation and impact. Can we...
Long or short on storage? A look into price signals for duration
Dan Lee looks into utility-scale storage in Queensland - including the need for megawatt-hours, the state of the build-out, and the current market price signal for duration.
GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q2 2023 released
A quick note to mark the the release of GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q2 2023 last week.
What inputs and processes determine a semi-scheduled unit’s availability
It is indispensable to understand how the semi-scheduled unit availability gets produced to optimally manage the critical inputs and comprehend dispatch outcomes. This article explains the key inputs and processes, focusing on the dispatch...
Another research paper into solar and wind droughts in Australia
A quick note at another research paper (focused on an area of interest to us) that's crossed our field of vision.
Digging further into ‘Aggregate Scheduled Target’, to understand what Dispatchable Capacity is actually required
In conjunction with the analysis done to complete GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023 (released today), here's 14 years of daily data of 'Aggregate Scheduled Target' that might help to illustrate the aggregate requirement...
GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023 released
A quick note on Wednesday 31st May 2023 to mark the release of GenInsights Quarterly Update for Q1 2023.
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022… Part 4: the geographical spread of +861MW AggROT
In the fourth instalment of this ongoing case study, Dan Lee maps the locations and contributions of the semi-scheduled units that contributed to the +861MW Aggregate Raw Off-Target that occurred on the afternoon of...
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 … part 3 … (+861MW AggROT – source of AvailGen)
In Part 3 of this Case Study, we look at the source of the Dispatch Interval Availability forecasts for these units at 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (i.e. Self-Forecast or something else, incl AWEFS/ASEFS).
Why capacity factor is an increasingly over-simplistic metric
Dan Lee explains why capacity factor could be becoming an increasingly less useful measure for comparing how different solar farms are performing and begins an exploration into some of the factors in play when...
Case Study of 17:05 on 27th October 2022 (+861MW AggROT for Semi-Scheduled units) … Part 1 of (an uncertain number)
In Part 1 of this Case Study, we start to look at the large collective under-performance across all Semi-Scheduled units (i.e. Wind and Large Solar) at 17:05 on 27th October 2022. More to come...
Unavailability of coal units hits 24% across calendar 2022 (but they are *not* collectively tripping more often)
This second excerpt from GenInsights 2022 Q4 Update highlights some of what's seen in terms of the performance of coal units.
Weather! The cause of.. and solution to.. all the electricity market’s problems?
Dan Lee tracks the demand forecasts against the actual outcome in QLD last Friday afternoon. The final result was as much as ∼1,000MW lower than the maximum forecast of demand published by the AEMO,...
The Generator Statistical Digest 2022 (GSD2022) is released
Following a focused effort over the past two months, we've released the updated statistical record of operations in Australia's National Electricity Market ... the Generator Statistical Digest 2022 (GSD2022)
How common are islandings and transmission tower failures in the NEM?
In light of recent events, Dan Lee does some digging to find historical incidences of islandings and transmission tower failures.
Who drove FCAS on the island
Close to $31.5M of revenue was generated in the FCAS markets in SA over the seven days that the region was frequency separated from the rest of the NEM. This follow-on from Allan O’Neil’s...
What was the total cost of ‘keeping the lights on’ across the NEM in June?
Dan Lee provides some exploratory calculations in order to estimate the total cost of maintaining electricity supply throughout a very turbulent June.
AER identifies (at least) 9 discrete factors contributing to the extreme price outcomes (and other concerns) through Q2 2022
With the AER having released its 'Wholesale Markets Quarterly' for Q2 2022 yesterday, I skimmed and saw 9 discrete factors flagged ... each of which contributed to the extreme (price and scarcity) outcomes seen...
AEMO QED highlights (at least) Eight Factors contributing to extreme price outcomes in Q2 2022
On Friday morning 29th July 2022 the AEMO is releasing its 'Quarterly Energy Dynamics' for Q2 2022 - I've flipped through an embargoed copy and have highlighted here eight different factors flagged by AEMO...