Operating under siege
We take a look at challenges for AEMO in operating the system under the security threats posed by the ongoing bushfires …
Articles by Allan O'Neil
Out of the blue, an LOR2
Considering the extraordinary weather, bushfires, and a couple of large Victorian generators still not back from long term repairs, last week was probably less eventful for the NEM than might have been expected, but it certainly wasn’t incident-free. A very…
Summer reliability back in the headlines
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, provides us an update today on what we can see about summer 2019-20 (in the physical market, and the financial market), now that it is only just around the corner.
More on those negative prices – how do contracts affect bidding behaviour?
Guest author Allan O’Neil provides this handy explainer on how generators’ contract positions affect their bidding decisions and can make negative spot prices pay off, at least in the short term. Very useful for those readers not actively involved in wholesale trading in helping to understand why some conspiracy theories might not match reality.
Who’s responsible for those negative prices?
Rapidly growing solar PV output has been widely tagged as the cause of low and even negative prices in Queensland. But in any market it’s the behaviour of ALL participants that determines price outcomes. Guest author Allan O’Neil takes a closer look at recent NEM bidding.
ESOO Unboxing
Without resiling from last week’s criticism of how the headlines from AEMO’s 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) were communicated, it’d be churlish for me to fault the depth of disclosure and data sitting behind those results. Literally tens if…
ConfUSEd by the ESOO? You’re not alone.
I’d rather not add to the number of conspiracy theories in circulation, but I wonder if there’s a conspiracy to make understanding our electricity system in general, and its reliability in particular, as difficult as humanly possible. There’s no doubt…
Keeping the lights on this summer – possible impact of the Loy Yang A2 and Mortlake outages
Two large thermal generating units in Victoria with combined capacity of over 800 MW have recently experienced major electrical faults each requiring many months to repair. Previous WattClarity posts have covered initial assessments of the outages of AGL’s 530 MW Loy…
Extended outage of Loy Yang A unit 2 – reliability and forward price impacts
A broader look at what the extended outage at Loy Yang A unit 2 seems to be having on the spot and financial markets into the future, via AEMO MT PASA data, and via the ASX Energy’s futures price data.
Price Setting Concepts – an Explainer
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, contributes to our series of articles explaining how prices are set the the NEM (as part of how dispatch works). In this article, Allan explains some of the details in the AEMO’s “Price Setter” file.
A (Much) Deeper Dive into Friday March 1 2019
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, drills into considerable depth to understand, and clearly explain, some of what happened during a volatile period in the VIC and SA regions on Friday 1st March 2019
NEM spot prices remained stubbornly high in 2018 – what were the drivers?
The surge in NEM spot prices since 2015, and related impacts on contract and retail prices, have been extensively discussed and analysed in many forums, from ACCC inquiries to Twitter. The underlying reasons for the rise are well understood and…
NEM Summer Outlook 2018/19 – what is AEMO saying?
Following on from Paul’s article on Queensland, this post examines the summer outlook for the other mainland NEM regions, drawing from some key AEMO publications and datasources, namely: the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) published in August this year AEMO’s Summer…
High SA Prices on Monday 9 July–Business as Usual?
One of our guest authors, Allan O’Neil, takes a closer look at what happened in the South Australian region of the NEM on Monday 9th July 2018
When the NEM’s Largest Generating Unit Trips …
A follow-on to my earlier article of a couple weeks ago, looking at another instance where a team effort was required to counter a drop in system frequency following the loss of generation at a large power station (this time the single unit Kogan Creek power station – the largest single unit in the NEM).
FCAS in Action – What Happens When a Generator Trips? (or Never let the data get in the way of a good story)
Understanding the FCAS response by all generators when a unit trips in the NEM. A detailed look at the Loy Yang A unit trip in December 2017 and the contribution of the Hornsdale Power Reserve.
Some perspectives on events last Thursday and Friday
Some observations about the events across Victoria and South Australia of Thursday 18th and Friday 19th January 2018.
What’s the market data saying about this Summer?
Guest author, Allan O’Neil, follows up a post in September (reviewing what the AEMO’s ESOO was saying about summer 2017-18) with this review of updated data
No Guarantee of Success
Our guest author, Allan O’Neil, poses a number of questions about the recently proposed “National Energy Guarantee” (NEG)
Decoding AEMO’s latest ESOO–will the lights stay on this summer?
Some initial analysis by our guest author, Allan O’Neil, about what AEMO’s Statement of Opportunities 2017 is saying in terms of this coming summer 2017-18