Very fast FCAS markets continue to grow
Six observations from a chart summarising how capacity, availability and volumes enabled have changed over the early phase of the very fast FCAs markets, since commencement on October 9, 2023.
Seasonal Record of Events in the Market
Collections of events that we see happening in the NEM, categorised in terms of the seasons in which they occur.
Barron Gorge Hydro Station damaged and offline after flooding from Cyclone Japser in North Queensland
Flooding from Cyclone Jasper has damaged part of the Barron Gorge Hydro Power Station in North Queensland, forcing its units offline until further assessment and repairs.
AEMO forecast for LOR2 in NSW on Tuesday 19th December 2023
A short initial note about AEMO’s currently forecast LOR2 for NSW next Tuesday 19th December 2023.
Belated notice from the AEMO about RERT contracted for yesterday (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
It’s Friday morning and AEMO has just published a Market Notice to alert the market that RERT was contracted for yesterday evening in NSW (Thu 14th Dec 2023).
Wind production ramps down in NSW, coincident with Increased Demand (and then Actual LOR2)
One factor contributing to the tight supply-demand balance is the decline in wind production (and capability) inverse to the rise in ‘Market Demand’.
Actual LOR2 in NSW from 17:30 on Thursday 14th December 2023
‘Market Demand’ has ramped back up, leading to an ‘Actual LOR2’ low reserve condition in NSW on Thu 14th Dec 2023
NSW ‘Market Demand’ climbs past 13,000MW – and IRPM drops – but prices stay moderate
NSW ‘Market Demand’ exceeds 13,000MW for the first time today (Thu 14th Dec 2023)
NSW ‘Market Demand’ squeezes 12,500MW as price passes $500/MWh
Getting closer to the time of forecast peak in demand, the forecast LOR2 is revised downwards.
RERT negotiations underway in NSW … at the same time as the NSW spot price is negative and forecast spikes have disappeared
A strange coincidence with the AEMO ‘intending to commence’ negotiations about Reserve Trader for NSW – for this afternoon/evening.
RERT negotiations commenced in NSW by AEMO on Thursday 14th December 2023
A short post to note that the AEMO have published a market notice stating an intention to commence RERT negotiations in NSW.
NSW ‘Market Demand’ over 11,000MW – and forecast evening demand warming back towards 13,000MW
A quick update into Thursday afternoon with forecast for this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023 in NSW
A quick look at forecasts for available wind generation in NSW for this evening 14th December 2023
A quick look at Semi-Scheduled Wind UIGF forecasts for this evening, where tight supply-demand is expected in NSW.
Demand forecast moderating for NSW for Thursday evening, 14th December 2023
A late morning update on forecast conditions for NSW this evening, Thu 14th Dec 2023
Forecast supply-demand for NSW for Thursday evening 14th December 2023 remains tight
An updated view of the forecast for a tight supply-demand balance for tomorrow (Thu 14th Dec 2023) in NSW.
AEMO requests generator recall information in NSW and QLD for this Thursday 14th December 2023
Two AEMO market notices late this morning suggest that NSW and QLD are in for tight supply-demand later this week, with an LOR2 condition currently forecast in the former.
NEM-wide ‘Market Demand’ peaks above 30,000MW on Friday 8th December 2023 … first time since July
The NEM-wide demand peaked (just!) above 30GW on Friday afternoon/evening 8th December 2023.
Sydney forecast to become ‘island of extreme heat’ tomorrow Saturday 9th of December 2023
A short note following a post from Ben Domensino warning of 40+ degree weather in the Sydney metropolitan area tomorrow.
Price volatility also in NSW on Friday 8th December 2023
Second article on Friday 8th December 2023, about two NSW spikes that top-and-tail the volatility written about earlier in South Australia.
Run of extreme prices in the SA region on Friday 8th December 2023
Prices in SA have spiked to close to the market cap and remained elevated, following the invocation of the ‘I-VS_250’ constraint set due to extreme weather conditions.
Case Study (Part 2) of Low % VRE NEM-wide on 3rd and 4th July 2023
The second part of an ongoing case study examining two successive days of low VRE generation in early July 2023. This part examines IRPM, earlier forecasts of available generation and maps the availability by site location.